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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Guimaraes — Moreirense

Predictions by Market: Guimaraes vs Moreirense

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W L D L D
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 14:30
1:1
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
L L W D L Away · last 5
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques · Guimarães Referee Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · GUI
58%
Best 1.51
Draw
24%
Best 4.38
Away Win · MOR
24%
Best 7.50
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.39
Fair odds
2.12
book 2.39 · +12.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 47% · EV +12.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (76%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win
Probability 23.7%
Odds 6.15
Show model details
Implied probability 16.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 57.9%
Odds 1.43
Show model details
Implied probability 69.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 23.5%
Odds 3.87
Show model details
Implied probability 25.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 59.6%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 40.4%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 34%
Odds 3.24
Show model details
Implied probability 30.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.5%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 79.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.5%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 66%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 21.1%
Odds 3.39
Show model details
Implied probability 29.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 60.7%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 39.3%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 20.5%
Odds 5.63
Show model details
Implied probability 17.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 52.8%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 47.2%
Odds 2.39
Show model details
Implied probability 41.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 76.3%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
GUI – MOR @ 2.39
+12.7%
Edge
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