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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Rio Ave — Estrela

Rio Ave vs Estrela 3:3: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Home · last 5 W L L D L
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep · 17:45
3:3
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
W D W D L Away · last 5
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 1.95 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.75 ✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 39% · book 2.48 ✗
Total goals
6
3 · 3
Possession
38% – 62%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.95 — +10.5% better than the market.

Rio Ave faces a tough challenge against Estrela, who show better recent form and a clear attacking edge. Rio Ave's home momentum is limited by their struggles in front of goal, while Estrela's compact defense and ability to control the midfield suggest a cautious, low-scoring affair. Expect a tactical battle with few clear chances.

  • Estrela's steadier form and pressing edge
  • Rio Ave's difficulty converting chances
  • Likely controlled pace favoring defensive solidity

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.95 ✗ Lost
AI 57% Implied 51% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RIO 4-2-3-1 · EST 4-2-3-1
RIO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · EST 99 van der Gouw 20 Tomé 23 Petrasso ⚽ 3 Garcia 24 Amaral 5 Ntoi 44 Nikitscher 79 Patricio 80 Clemmensen 7 Bezerra 11 Blesa ⚽ 24 Linck 21 Scholze 5 Leković 30 Luan 55 Soares 39 Doue 78 Serra 99 Marcus ⚽ 14 Zvonarek 10 Stoica ⚽ 37 Antonetti
Subs used · RIO
54' Galcik ↑ · Clemensen ↓
63' Monteiro ↑ · Patricío ↓
68' Abbey ↑ · Baptista ↓
68' Sellouki ↑ · Nikitscher ↓
68' Vrushai ↑ · Amaral ↓
Subs used · EST
63' Jordan ↑ · Doué ↓
71' Jansson ↑ · Scholze ↓
72' Encada ↑ · Serra ↓
84' Souza ↑ · Marcus ↓
84' Souza ↑ · Stoica ↓

Statistics

RIO 3 – 3 EST
38%
Possession (%)
62%
11
Total Shots
20
6
Shots on Target
6
3
Shots off Target
7
4
Shots Inside Box
14
4
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
2
16
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

21 · 3 – 3
21'
⚽
Ianis Stoica
Assist · Leandro Antonetti · 0–1
26'
▮
Max Scholze
Yellow Card
Francisco Petrasso
Yellow Card
▮
44'
Francisco Petrasso
Assist · Diogo Bezerra · 1–1
⚽
45+3'
Half-time · 1 – 1
53'
⚽
Abraham Marcus
Assist · Max Scholze · 1–2
Roland Galcik ↓ · Sebastian Clemensen ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
54'
Roland Galcik
Assist · Diogo Bezerra · 2–2
⚽
56'
58'
▮
Eddy Doué
Yellow Card
61'
⚽
Abraham Marcus
Assist · Ianis Stoica · 2–3
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro ↓ · Miguel Patricío ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
63'
⇄
Joan Jordan ↓ · Eddy Doué ↑
Substitution 1
Nelson Abbey ↓ · João Tomé Baptista ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
68'
Malik Sellouki ↓ · Tamas Nikitscher ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
68'
Marios Vrushai ↓ · Pedro Amaral ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
68'
71'
⇄
Kevin Hoog Jansson ↓ · Max Scholze ↑
Substitution 2
72'
⇄
Jefferson Encada ↓ · Santiago Serra ↑
Substitution 3
76'
▮
Stefan Lekovic
Yellow Card
Jalen Blesa (P)
Penalty · 3–3
⚽
78'
84'
⇄
Beni Souza ↓ · Abraham Marcus ↑
Substitution 4
84'
⇄
Alisson Souza ↓ · Ianis Stoica ↑
Substitution 5
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
Full-time · 3 – 3

Match recap

Rio Ave and Estrela drew 3–3. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 11, 6 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Ianis Stoica (21'), Francisco Petrasso (45+3'), Abraham Marcus (53'), Roland Galcik (56'), Abraham Marcus (61'), Jalen Blesa (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.18 units (Brier 0.237).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.95 1.96 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.75 1.75 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.48 2.67 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.75 2.70 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.05 2.09 43% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.79 1.78 43% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.84 1.92 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.03 1.94 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.40 1.44 66% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.50 1.44 61% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.23 3.10 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.26 1.25 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 9.01 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.06 90% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 1.30 69% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Draw 3.28 3.17 27% Cashed +2.28 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.47 3.50 23% Cashed +2.47 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.18u −7% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
RIO – EST @ 1.95
+10.5%
Edge
Forecast →