Nacional vs Alverca 1:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.79 — +1.4% better than the market.

Nacional shows a slight edge in recent form and points per game, suggesting home momentum could be key. Both sides have struggled for consistency, but Nacional’s marginally better attack and home comfort may keep the game tight. Expect a cautious pace with limited goal-scoring chances, reflected in the odds favoring under 2.5 goals.

Home side’s recent win hints at breaking poor form
Both teams show defensive resilience
Low-scoring match likely with tactical compactness

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.79 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 56% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

NAC 3-4-3 · ALV 3-4-3

NAC · 3-4-3 3-4-3 · ALV

99 Ruan

10 daniel

Subs used · NAC

45'

Djaló ↑ ·

Junior ↓

45'

Min-kyu ↑ ·

Jensen ↓

54'

Labidi ↑ ·

Dias ↓

69'

Obando ↑ ·

Gavriel ↓

78'

Ortega ↑ ·

Ruan ↓

Subs used · ALV

65'

Franca ↑ ·

Chiquinho ↓

66'

Vidigal ↑ ·

Santos ↓

72'

Semedo ↑ ·

Sankharé ↓

79'

Lucas ↑ ·

Gui ↓

79'

Nuozzi ↑ ·

James ↓

Statistics

NAC 1 – 3 ALV

57%

Possession (%)

43%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 1 – 3

18'

▮

Yaya Bojang

Yellow Card

34'

⚽

Francisco Chissumba

Assist · Francisco Chiquinho · 0–1

36'

⚽

Dawda Camara Sankharé

Assist · Diogo Spencer · 0–2

42'

⚽

Dawda Camara Sankharé

Assist · Diogo Spencer · 0–3

Matchoi Djaló ↓ · Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Song Min-kyu ↓ · Markus Jensen ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

45'

Half-time · 0 – 3

48'

▮

Dawda Camara Sankharé

Yellow Card

Chiheb Labidi ↓ · Matheus dos Santos Dias ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

54'

65'

⇄

Matheus Franca ↓ · Francisco Chiquinho ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⇄

André Vidigal ↓ · Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos ↑

Substitution 2

Allen Obando ↓ · Stavros Gavriel ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

69'

72'

⇄

Vivaldo Semedo ↓ · Dawda Camara Sankharé ↑

Substitution 3

73'

▮

Diogo Spencer

Yellow Card

Fernando Nava Ortega ↓ · Pablo Ruan ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

78'

79'

⇄

Rayan Lucas ↓ · Davy Gui ↑

Substitution 4

79'

⇄

Cedric Nuozzi ↓ · Isaac James ↑

Substitution 5

Matchoi Djaló

1–3

⚽

81'

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Alverca won 3–1 away at Nacional. At half-time it was 0–3.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Francisco Chissumba (34'), Dawda Camara Sankharé (36'), Dawda Camara Sankharé (42'), Matchoi Djaló (81').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.33 units (Brier 0.256).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.79	1.73	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.98	1.95	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.57	2.72	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.71	2.58	34%	Cashed	+1.71	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.06	2.10	43%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.74	1.80	49%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.89	2.00	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.99	1.87	34%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.44	1.44	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.44	1.45	62%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.24	3.25	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.27	1.25	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.06	90%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.75	9.01	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.29	1.33	69%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Draw	3.25	3.28	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.40	3.75	24%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.33u	−8% ROI

Nacional vs Alverca 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled