Arouca vs Maritimo 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.85 — +9.5% better than the market.

Arouca shows strong home momentum with recent wins boosting confidence, while Maritimo has been inconsistent despite some positive results. The home side's sharper form and slightly better recent points per game suggest they hold a pressing edge. Expect a lively encounter with both teams likely to find chances, supported by a moderately high goal environment hinted by odds.

Arouca's home rhythm and form advantage
Maritimo's resilience but patchy away displays
Potential for goals on both ends in an open tempo

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.85 ✓ Cashed

AI 59% Implied 54% +0.85u

+85%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · MAR 4-3-3

ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · MAR

17 Barbero ⚽

Subs used · ARO

70'

Nandin ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

70'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

79'

Flores ↑ ·

Gozalbez ↓

79'

Santos ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

87'

Climent ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

Subs used · MAR

62'

Bamba ↑ ·

Limbombe ↓

77'

Boakye ↑ ·

Danilovic ↓

77'

Ayuma ↑ ·

Butzke ↓

87'

Nilton ↑ ·

Fernandes ↓

Statistics

ARO 2 – 1 MAR

52%

Possession (%)

48%

1.65

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.67

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 2 – 1

27'

⚽

M. Tejon

0–1

E. van Ee

Assist · A. Trezza · 1–1

⚽

44'

▮

Raphael Guzzo

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

I. Barbero

Assist · P. Gozalbez · 2–1

⚽

55'

62'

⇄

S. Bamba ↓ · B. Limbombe ↑

Substitution 1

D. Nandin ↓ · A. Trezza ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

B. Mansilla ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

D. Nandin

Yellow Card

▮

76'

77'

⇄

M. Boakye ↓ · V. Danilovic ↑

Substitution 2

77'

⇄

I. Ayuma ↓ · A. Butzke ↑

Substitution 3

M. Flores ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

79'

Pedro Santos ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

M. Climent ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

87'

⇄

Nilton ↓ · R. Fernandes ↑

Substitution 4

J. Sanchez

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Arouca beat Maritimo 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.65 to 0.67. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 12, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Tejon (27'), E. van Ee (44'), I. Barbero (55').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.12 units (Brier 0.139).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.85	1.81	59%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.17	2.10	55%	Cashed	+1.17	Cashed
Home Win	2.25	2.17	44%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.71	1.75	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.86	1.93	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.65	1.55	44%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.30	2.47	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.65	3.50	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.35	1.33	78%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.32	1.30	71%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.60	1.67	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.93	3.25	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.06	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Away Win	3.25	3.40	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.25	3.28	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.24	1.25	64%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Under 0.5	7.90	9.01	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.12u	−24% ROI

Arouca vs Maritimo 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled