Estrela vs SC Braga 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 2.05 — +2.6% better than the market.

Estrela hosts SC Braga in a Primeira Liga clash where recent form slightly favors the visitors, who have edged ahead in points per game. Estrela's home momentum and a history of high-scoring encounters suggest an open game. Braga's consistent away results and slightly better attack could test Estrela's defense, setting the stage for a competitive match with chances at both ends.

Home side's resilience and set-piece threat
Braga's pressing edge and efficient attack
Potential for goals given past high-scoring meetings

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 2.05 ✓ Cashed

AI 50% Implied 49% +1.05u

+105%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 4-2-3-1 · BRA 3-4-3

EST · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · BRA

21 Scholze 30 Luan

37 Antonetti

Subs used · EST

75'

Jordan ↑ ·

Serra ↓

75'

Souza ↑ ·

Stoica ↓

87'

Mitongo ↑ ·

Antonetti ↓

90'

Jansson ↑ ·

Zvonarek ↓

Subs used · BRA

61'

Marqués ↑ ·

Navarro ↓

61'

Travassos ↑ ·

Aguilera ↓

61'

Silva ↑ ·

Dorgeles ↓

76'

Wind ↑ ·

Victor ↓

76'

Henrique ↑ ·

Tıknaz ↓

Statistics

EST 2 – 1 BRA

37%

Possession (%)

63%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 2 – 1

⚽

Gabriel Martínez Aguilera

Assist · Pau Victor · 0–1

Stefan Lekovic

Yellow Card

▮

27'

Ianis Stoica

Assist · Eddy Doué · 1–1

⚽

45'

Half-time · 1 – 1

Ianis Stoica

Assist · Abraham Marcus · 2–1

⚽

56'

61'

⇄

Tommy Marqués ↓ · Fra Navarro ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

Diogo Martins Travassos ↓ · Gabriel Martínez Aguilera ↑

Substitution 2

61'

⇄

Gabriel Silva ↓ · Mario Dorgeles ↑

Substitution 3

Joan Jordan ↓ · Santiago Serra ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

75'

Beni Souza ↓ · Ianis Stoica ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

75'

76'

⇄

Jonas Wind ↓ · Pau Victor ↑

Substitution 4

76'

⇄

Diego Henrique ↓ · Demir Ege Tıknaz ↑

Substitution 5

77'

▮

João Moutinho

Yellow Card

Luan Patrick

Yellow Card

▮

85'

René Mitongo ↓ · Leandro Antonetti ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

Kevin Hoog Jansson ↓ · Lovro Zvonarek ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Estrela beat SC Braga 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 5. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Gabriel Martínez Aguilera (5'), Ianis Stoica (45'), Ianis Stoica (56').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.35 units (Brier 0.225).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X	2.05	2.27	50%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.00	1.90	50%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.86	1.91	52%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.87	1.85	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.88	1.83	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.73	1.62	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.75	5.62	25%	Cashed	+3.75	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.19	1.15	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.05	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	3.30	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	1.27	74%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Draw	3.73	3.80	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.27	1.30	72%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.32	3.40	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	4.10	4.10	23%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.05	10.00	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.20	1.19	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.35u	+8% ROI

Estrela vs SC Braga 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled