Match Guimaraes vs Nacional August 23, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.80 — +8.6% better than the market.

Guimaraes faces Nacional with contrasting recent form, as the home side struggles for momentum while Nacional shows signs of revival. The match hints at a balanced pace with evenly matched goal expectations, suggesting a tactical battle. Guimaraes' home advantage is tempered by their poor recent results, while Nacional's sharper form and pressing edge could unlock chances.

Home side's defensive resilience tested by away's improved attack
Midfield control likely key in shaping the contest
Moderate tempo expected, favoring compact defensive setups

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.80 ✗ Lost

AI 60% Implied 56% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · NAC 3-4-2-1

GUI · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · NAC

24 Ndoye

Subs used · GUI

63'

Mukendi ↑ ·

Doucet ↓

63'

Camara ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

72'

Mitrovic ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

78'

Arcanjo ↑ ·

Gustavo ↓

Subs used · NAC

56'

I. de la Cruz ↑ ·

Gasolina ↓

56' Kokolo ↑ ·

Baeza ↓

68'

Gavriel ↑ ·

Liziero ↓

80'

Obando ↑ ·

Jensen ↓

80'

Djalo ↑ ·

Dias ↓

📊 Statistics

GUI 1 – 0 NAC

48%

Possession (%)

52%

3.14

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.42

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 0

Gustavo

Assist · M. Nogueira · 1–0

⚽

G. Nogueira

Yellow Card

▮

28'

M. Nogueira

Yellow Card

▮

38'

T. Margarido

Yellow Card

▮

45+4'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Samu (P)

Penalty · Assist · Samu · 2–0

⚽

49'

56'

⇄

D. I. de la Cruz ↓ · Wesley Gasolina ↑

Substitution 1

56'

⇄

W. Kokolo ↓ · M. Baeza ↑

Substitution 2

B. Mukendi ↓ · L. Doucet ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

63'

O. Camara ↓ · M. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

68'

⇄

S. Gavriel ↓ · Liziero ↑

Substitution 3

M. Mitrovic ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

T. Arcanjo ↓ · Gustavo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

80'

⇄

A. Obando ↓ · M. Jensen ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

M. Djalo ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑

Substitution 5

90+5'

▮

Daniel Junior

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Guimaraes beat Nacional 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.14 to 0.42. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 7, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Gustavo (4').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.24 units (Brier 0.236).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.92	1.90	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.80	1.85	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.10	2.12	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.72	1.67	51%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.92	1.90	40%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	1.89	40%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.17	3.25	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.89	5.00	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.19	1.18	76%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	1.25	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.75	3.73	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.42	3.62	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.31	1.30	61%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.40	3.70	20%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.26	1.24	51%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.05	10.99	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.24u	−19% ROI