Match FC Porto vs Arouca August 23, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.45 — +11.9% better than the market.

FC Porto enters this clash with strong home momentum, having secured back-to-back wins. Their attacking threat is expected to challenge Arouca's defense, which has shown vulnerabilities. The visitors have also won recently but face a tough task containing Porto's dynamic offense. The pace hints at a moderately open game, with over 2.5 goals likely given Porto's scoring edge and Arouca's willingness to press forward.

Home side's attacking pressure versus away defensive gaps
Recent form favors Porto's consistency
Moderate tempo suggests goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 2.45 ✗ Lost

AI 46% Implied 41% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

POR 4-3-3 · ARO 4-2-3-1

POR · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · ARO

11 Pepê

Subs used · POR

72'

Gul ↑ ·

Silva ↓

76'

Sainz ↑ ·

Gomes ↓

76'

In-Beom ↑ ·

Veiga ↓

88'

Perez ↑ ·

Bednarek ↓

Subs used · ARO

62'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Lee ↓

62'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

72'

Santos ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

72'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

88'

Flores ↑ ·

Esgaio ↓

📊 Statistics

POR 2 – 0 ARO

53%

Possession (%)

47%

3.00

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.54

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 2 – 0

Half-time · 0 – 0

62'

⇄

P. Gozalbez ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 2

G. Veiga

Assist · William Gomes · 1–0

⚽

67'

D. Gul ↓ · Andre Silva ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

72'

⇄

Pedro Santos ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 3

72'

⇄

B. Mansilla ↓ · A. Trezza ↑

Substitution 4

B. Sainz ↓ · William Gomes ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

76'

Hwang In-Beom ↓ · G. Veiga ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

Hwang In-Beom

Yellow Card

▮

83'

B. Sainz

Assist · Pepe · 2–0

⚽

86'

88'

⇄

M. Flores ↓ · Tiago Esgaio ↑

Substitution 5

N. Perez ↓ · J. Bednarek ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

FC Porto beat Arouca 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.00 to 0.54. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 4, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves.

On the scoresheet: G. Veiga (67'), B. Sainz (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.17 units (Brier 0.130).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.25	2.09	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.45	2.50	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.62	1.62	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.34	2.30	33%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
Away Win	13.50	11.49	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	4.55	3.77	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	10.50	7.87	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.50	5.65	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.03	1.04	88%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.18	1.25	72%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.48	1.44	54%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.04	1.03	72%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
BTTS No	1.57	1.67	48%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.16	1.18	85%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	1.02	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.48	4.50	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.50	14.93	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.17u	−36% ROI