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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › FC Porto — Arouca

Predictions by Market: FC Porto vs Arouca

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug · 19:30
2:0
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
L W D L D Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee J. Pinheiro

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · POR
72%
Best 1.27
Draw
17%
Best 6.71
Away Win · ARO
12%
Best 12.00
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.45
Fair odds
2.19
book 2.45 · +11.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 46% · EV +11.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (54%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win
Probability 11.6%
Odds 13.50
Show model details
Implied probability 7.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 16.7%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5 Value pick
Probability 66.6%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 33.5%
Odds 2.34
Show model details
Implied probability 42.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 15.4%
Odds 4.48
Show model details
Implied probability 22.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4.4%
Odds 15.50
Show model details
Implied probability 6.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Value pick
Probability 52.2%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No
Probability 47.8%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 11.6%
Odds 10.50
Show model details
Implied probability 9.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 28.2%
Odds 4.55
Show model details
Implied probability 22%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 88.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
POR – ARO @ 2.45
+11.9%
Edge
Forecast →