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Lens vs Lyon 2:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Lens
Lens
Home · last 5 L L D L W
Kick-off
Fri 09 Oct · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Lyon
Lyon
D W D W L Away · last 5
Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Lens Referee Jeremy Stinat
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 48% · book 2.50 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 45% · book 2.42 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 68% · book 1.54 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.41 – 1.01
Δ +0.40
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.42 — +8.8% better than the market.

Lyon arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Lens’ home momentum is tempered by defensive vulnerabilities against Lyon’s disciplined backline. Expect a tactical battle where Lyon’s compact defense could stifle Lens’ attacking attempts, while Lens might rely on set-piece opportunities to break through.

  • Lyon’s defensive solidity counters Lens’ offensive efforts.
  • Lens’ home edge is modest but present.
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring a controlled game.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.42 ✗ Lost
AI 45% Implied 41% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEN 3-4-2-1 · LYO 4-2-3-1
Subs used · LEN
53' Baidoo ↑ · Gradit ↓
54' Haidara ↑ · Titraoui ↓
69' Ivanovic ↑ · Édouard ↓
69' Kadile ↑ · Sotoca ↓
83' Bulatović ↑ · Cuisance ↓
Subs used · LYO
60' Nakamura ↑ · Openda ↓
60' Nartey ↑ · Bidstrup ↓
71' Boudache ↑ · Nuamah ↓
77' Tessmann ↑ · Morton ↓
78' Merah ↑ · Šulc ↓

Statistics

LEN 2 – 1 LYO
48%
Possession (%)
52%
1.41
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.01
15
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Target
5
7
Shots off Target
5
12
Shots Inside Box
9
7
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
1
13
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

16 · 2 – 1
23'
▮
Abner Vinicius
Yellow Card
Florian Sotoca
Assist · Florian Thauvin · 1–0
⚽
36'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Jonathan Gradit
Yellow Card
▮
50'
Samson Baidoo ↓ · Jonathan Gradit ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
53'
Amadou Haidara ↓ · Yassine Titraoui ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
54'
60'
⇄
Keito Nakamura ↓ · Loïs Openda ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
Noah Teye Nartey ↓ · Mads Bidstrup ↑
Substitution 2
Franjo Ivanovic ↓ · Odsonne Édouard ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
69'
Junior Kadile ↓ · Florian Sotoca ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
69'
71'
⇄
Kail Boudache ↓ · Ernest Nuamah ↑
Substitution 3
Matthieu Udol
Assist · Florian Thauvin · 2–0
⚽
76'
77'
⇄
Tanner Tessmann ↓ · Tyler Morton ↑
Substitution 4
78'
⇄
Khalis Merah ↓ · Pavel Šulc ↑
Substitution 5
Andrija Bulatović ↓ · Michaël Cuisance ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
83'
Matthieu Udol
Red Card
▮
84'
85'
⚽
Khalis Merah
2–1
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Lens beat Lyon 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4.

On the scoresheet: Florian Sotoca (36'), Matthieu Udol (76'), Khalis Merah (85'). Matthieu Udol was sent off in the 84' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.54 units (Brier 0.185).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.50 2.65 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.42 2.45 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.54 1.52 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.04 1.98 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.61 1.53 55% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.36 2.36 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.43 2.55 32% Cashed +1.43 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.82 1.92 32% Cashed +0.82 Cashed
Away Win 3.00 2.62 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.85 5.00 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.55 1.62 66% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.36 1.44 61% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.50 1.44 53% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.75 14.93 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.03 94% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.16 1.17 78% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Draw 3.50 3.60 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.54u −27% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
LEN – LYO @ 2.42
+8.8%
Edge
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