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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Monaco — Toulouse

Monaco vs Toulouse 2:2: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Monaco
Monaco
Home · last 5 W W D W D
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 18:45
2:2
Full-time
Toulouse
Toulouse
D L D W D Away · last 5
Stade Louis II · Monaco Referee Ruddy Buquet
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 64% · book 1.60 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 50% · book 2.24 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 46% · book 2.19 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.25 – 1.49
Δ −0.24
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.40 — +12.9% better than the market.

Monaco arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a solid defensive edge and a recent run of wins. Their pressing and compact block should challenge Toulouse, who have struggled for consistency and show signs of defensive vulnerability. The attacking battle favors Monaco slightly, but Toulouse's resilience could keep the scoreline tight in a match leaning towards a controlled tempo.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away attacking efforts
  • Monaco's recent winning form
  • Moderate pace suggested by odds, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.40 ✗ Lost
AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MON 4-2-3-1 · TOU 4-2-3-1
MON · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · TOU 1 Hrádecký 2 Vanderson 72 Sané 15 Dier 20 Nazinho 8 Camara 6 Zakaria 37 Diop ⚽ 10 Golovin 7 Detourbet 11 Abline ⚽ 16 Restes 22 Messali 5 Koumbassa 3 McKenzie 12 Tapé 23 Cásseres 6 Vossah 20 Tengstedt ⚽ 8 Jørgensen 37 Azizi 13 Russell-Rowe
Subs used · MON
51' Benzahra ↑ · Zakaria ↓
58' Balogun ↑ · Detourbet ↓
58' Idumbo ↑ · Diop ↓
75' Teze ↑ · Vanderson ↓
75' Fati ↑ · Abline ↓
Subs used · TOU
45' Oppong ↑ · Russell-Rowe ↓
71' Sigur ↑ · Azizi ↓
77' Diallo ↑ · Messali ↓
84' Hidalgo ↑ · Tengstedt ↓
84' Dønnum ↑ · Vossah ↓

Statistics

MON 2 – 2 TOU
58%
Possession (%)
42%
1.25
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.49
16
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Target
4
8
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
4
4
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
16
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

18 · 2 – 2
Edan Diop
Assist · Aleksandr Golovin · 1–0
⚽
29'
Matthis Abline
Assist · Edan Diop · 2–0
⚽
38'
45'
⇄
Sion Oppong ↓ · Jacen Russell-Rowe ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 2 – 0
Flavio Nazinho
Yellow Card
▮
47'
48'
⚽
Casper Tengstedt (P)
Penalty · 2–1
Safouane Benzahra ↓ · Denis Zakaria ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
51'
Aleksandr Golovin
Yellow Card
▮
54'
Folarin Balogun ↓ · Mathys Detourbet ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
58'
Stanis Idumbo ↓ · Edan Diop ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
58'
59'
⚽
Sion Oppong
Assist · Casper Tengstedt · 2–2
70'
▮
Cristian Casseres
Yellow Card
71'
⇄
Niko Sigur ↓ · Ilyas Azizi ↑
Substitution 2
Jordan Teze ↓ · Vanderson ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
Ansu Fati ↓ · Matthis Abline ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
75'
77'
⇄
Ismaïl Diallo ↓ · Rafik Messali ↑
Substitution 3
84'
⇄
Santiago Hidalgo ↓ · Casper Tengstedt ↑
Substitution 4
84'
⇄
Aron Dønnum ↓ · Alexis Vossah ↑
Substitution 5
90+3'
▮
Sion Oppong
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Monaco and Toulouse drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 8, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Edan Diop (29'), Matthis Abline (38'), Casper Tengstedt (48'), Sion Oppong (59').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.74 units (Brier 0.230).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.60 1.62 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.24 2.45 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.19 2.24 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.62 1.61 54% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.70 1.57 50% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.10 2.20 39% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.60 2.38 29% Cashed +1.60 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.40 5.00 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.47 1.53 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.22 1.18 84% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.24 1.24 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 14.00 14.93 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.02 92% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 3.80 4.10 23% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.19 1.17 74% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Away Win 4.33 5.10 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 4.04 3.77 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.74u −10% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MON – TOU @ 4.40
+12.9%
Edge
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