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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Lille — Le Havre

Lille vs Le Havre 1:0: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Lille
Lille
Home · last 5 D W W L W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 15:15
1:0
Full-time
Le Havre
Le Havre
D L D L L Away · last 5
Stade Pierre-Mauroy · Lille Referee Bastein Dechepy
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 2.15 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.80 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 44% · book 1.93 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.27 – 1.36
Δ −0.09
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.42 — +7.4% better than the market.

Lille enter this Ligue 1 clash with clear home momentum, boasting a strong defensive setup that should challenge Le Havre's attack. The visitors struggle for consistency and face a notable quality gap, making it tough to break down Lille's compact block. Expect a controlled tempo with limited goal-scoring chances, as both sides have shown signs of cautious play recently.

  • Lille's home edge in defense is significant against Le Havre's modest offense.
  • Recent form favors Lille's steady point accumulation.
  • Match likely to feature disciplined tactical approaches and fewer goals.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.42 ✓ Cashed
AI 76% Implied 70% +0.42u
+42%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LIL 4-2-3-1 · HAV 3-4-2-1
Subs used · LIL
22' Goffi ↑ · Santos ↓
57' Haraldsson ↑ · Perrin ↓
57' Ueda ↑ · Giroud ↓
73' Verdonk ↑ · Perraud ↓
73' Sahraoui ↑ · Mukau ↓
Subs used · HAV
69' Fofana ↑ · Nakamura ↓
69' Mwanga ↑ · Maja ↓
82' Mizuta ↑ · Richardson ↓

Statistics

LIL 1 – 0 HAV
47%
Possession (%)
53%
1.27
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.36
5
Total Shots
17
1
Shots on Target
2
4
Shots off Target
10
3
Shots Inside Box
9
4
Corner Kicks
5
4
Offsides
1
17
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

14 · 1 – 0
Dilane Bakwa
Assist · Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi · 1–0
⚽
5'
Maxima Goffi ↓ · Tiago Santos ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
22'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson ↓ · Gaëtan Perrin ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
57'
Ayase Ueda ↓ · Olivier Giroud ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
57'
61'
▮
Ayumu Seko
Red Card
63'
▮
Rassoul Ndiaye
Yellow Card
69'
⇄
Rayan Fofana ↓ · Sota Nakamura ↑
Substitution 1
69'
⇄
Junior Mwanga ↓ · Josh Maja ↑
Substitution 2
Calvin Verdonk ↓ · Romain Perraud ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
73'
Osame Sahraoui ↓ · Ngal'ayel Mukau ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
73'
76'
▮
Djibril Ouziad
Yellow Card
82'
⇄
Kaito Mizuta ↓ · Amir Richardson ↑
Substitution 3
Maurits Kjaergaard
Yellow Card
▮
85'
Maxima Goffi
Yellow Card
▮
90+2'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Lille beat Le Havre 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 5, 2 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Dilane Bakwa (5'). Ayumu Seko was sent off in the 61' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.83 units (Brier 0.129).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.15 2.30 55% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
BTTS No 1.80 1.96 56% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.93 1.78 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.80 2.65 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.76 1.62 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.72 2.55 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.42 1.45 76% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Home Win 1.40 1.45 70% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 0.5 13.70 14.93 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.14 4.50 32% Cashed +3.14 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.10 1.11 91% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.12 1.16 70% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 1.02 90% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 4.50 4.61 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.21 1.18 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 7.50 6.58 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.70 4.72 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.83u −17% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
LIL – HAV @ 1.42
+7.4%
Edge
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