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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Paris FC — Strasbourg

Paris FC vs Strasbourg 2:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Paris FC
Paris FC
Home · last 5 W W D W L
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 15:15
2:1
Full-time
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
L W W D L Away · last 5
Stade Jean Bouin · Isilemulino Referee Jeremy Stinat
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.20 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 43% · book 2.28 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 53% · book 1.77 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.20 — +2.0% better than the market.

Paris FC shows solid home momentum with a slightly better recent form and higher points per game, suggesting a pressing edge early on. Strasbourg, while competitive, has a bit less consistency and may struggle against Paris FC's compact block. The match hints at a moderately open pace given the odds favoring over 2.5 goals, so expect some attacking exchanges.

  • Home side's recent form is more stable
  • Strasbourg's defense might be tested
  • Potential for goals given attacking tendencies

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.20 ✗ Lost
AI 46% Implied 45% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

PAR 4-2-3-1 · STR 4-2-3-1
PAR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · STR 1 Trapp 14 Traoré 42 Coppola 5 Mbow 17 Camara 33 Lees-Melou 20 Lopez 10 Kebbal ⚽ 7 Pagis ⚽ 15 Koleosho 9 Sinayoko 1 Jörgensen 16 Antwi 4 Mitchell 6 Doukouré 36 Oso 29 El Mourabet 23 Sousa 80 Yassine 11 Nanasi 10 Reyna 30 Ortega
Subs used · PAR
54' Smet ↑ · Traore ↓
68' Ikoné ↑ · Pagis ↓
68' Matondo ↑ · Kebbal ↓
86' Marchetti ↑ · López ↓
87' Zabi ↑ · Sinayoko ↓
Subs used · STR
58' Harder ↑ · Ortega ↓
67' Essugo ↑ · Reyna ↓
67' Diop ↑ · El-Mourabet ↓
67' Amo-Ameyaw ↑ · Nanasi ↓
87' Dieme ↑ · Yassine ↓

Statistics

PAR 2 – 1 STR
52%
Possession (%)
48%
17
Total Shots
5
7
Shots on Target
1
4
Shots off Target
3
12
Shots Inside Box
4
3
Corner Kicks
0
1
Offsides
0
17
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

18 · 2 – 1
Ilan Kebbal
Assist · Lassine Sinayoko · 1–0
⚽
18'
Maxime López
Yellow Card
▮
40'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Thibault De Smet ↓ · Hamari Traore ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
54'
Pablo Pagis
Assist · Maxime López · 2–0
⚽
57'
58'
⇄
Conrad Harder ↓ · Jacobo Ortega ↑
Substitution 1
63'
▮
Diogo Sousa
Yellow Card
67'
▮
Gessime Yassine
Yellow Card
67'
⇄
Dario Essugo ↓ · Giovanni Reyna ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⇄
Pape Demba Diop ↓ · Samir El-Mourabet ↑
Substitution 3
67'
⇄
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw ↓ · Sebastian Nanasi ↑
Substitution 4
Jonathan Ikoné ↓ · Pablo Pagis ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
Rudy Matondo ↓ · Ilan Kebbal ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
68'
Vincent Marchetti ↓ · Maxime López ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
Patrick Zabi ↓ · Lassine Sinayoko ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
87'
⇄
Yaya Dieme ↓ · Gessime Yassine ↑
Substitution 5
88'
⚽
Moustapha Mbow
Own goal · 2–1
Thibault De Smet
Yellow Card
▮
90'
Luca Koleosho
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Paris FC beat Strasbourg 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 5, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 3 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Ilan Kebbal (18'), Pablo Pagis (57'), Moustapha Mbow (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.37 units (Brier 0.138).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.20 2.38 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.28 2.38 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.77 1.91 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.00 1.87 47% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.67 1.65 54% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.56 2.38 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.10 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.48 1.52 68% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.30 1.25 72% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.57 1.53 57% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.40 — 44% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.40 4.65 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.50 3.95 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 15.00 14.93 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 93% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.70 3.80 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.19 1.17 77% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.37u −32% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
PAR – STR @ 2.20
+2.0%
Edge
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