Toulouse vs Le Havre 3:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.35 — +14.2% better than the market.

This Ligue 1 clash at Stadium Municipal hints at a cautious encounter. Both sides share similar recent form, but Le Havre's slightly better points per game and defensive solidity could keep Toulouse's attack in check. The balanced pace odds suggest a moderate tempo, favoring a compact, low-scoring game.

Le Havre's defensive resilience may blunt Toulouse's forward efforts.
Home side's lack of recent wins points to limited attacking momentum.
Historical tight scorelines support a tactical, cautious approach.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 4.35 ✗ Lost

AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

TOU 4-2-3-1 · HAV 3-4-2-1

TOU · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · HAV

13 Russell-Rowe

Subs used · TOU

72'

Hidalgo ↑ ·

Tengstedt ↓

72'

Oppong ↑ ·

Azizi ↓

72'

Vossah ↑ ·

Messali ↓

Subs used · HAV

69'

Koffi ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

69'

Nakamura ↑ ·

Ouziad ↓

70'

Mwanga ↑ ·

Sasso ↓

82'

Bouneb ↑ ·

Maja ↓

82'

Ndiaye ↑ ·

Richardson ↓

Statistics

TOU 3 – 2 HAV

53%

Possession (%)

47%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 3 – 2

Christ Tape

Yellow Card

▮

34'

Half-time · 0 – 0

Casper Tengstedt (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

49'

Casper Tengstedt

Assist · Thomas Jorgensen · 2–0

⚽

51'

Niko Sigur

Yellow Card

▮

58'

69'

⇄

Enzo Koffi ↓ · Rayan Fofana ↑

Substitution 1

69'

⇄

Sota Nakamura ↓ · Djibril Ouziad ↑

Substitution 2

70'

⇄

Junior Mwanga ↓ · Vincent Sasso ↑

Substitution 3

71'

⚽

Josh Maja

Assist · Sota Nakamura · 2–1

Santiago Hidalgo ↓ · Casper Tengstedt ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

72'

Sion Oppong ↓ · Ilyas Azizi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

Alexis Vossah ↓ · Rafik Messali ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

Seny Koumbassa

Yellow Card

▮

74'

Thomas Jorgensen

Assist · Cristian Casseres · 3–1

⚽

79'

81'

▮

Sota Nakamura

Yellow Card

82'

⇄

Ismail Bouneb ↓ · Josh Maja ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

Rassoul Ndiaye ↓ · Amir Richardson ↑

Substitution 5

88'

⚽

Mbwana Ally Samatta

3–2

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Toulouse beat Le Havre 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 14, 7 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Casper Tengstedt (49'), Casper Tengstedt (51'), Josh Maja (71'), Thomas Jorgensen (79'), Mbwana Ally Samatta (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.32 units (Brier 0.213).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.14	2.30	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.16	2.16	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.93	2.10	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.82	1.70	48%	Cashed	+0.82	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.67	1.67	47%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.65	1.65	47%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	4.33	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.35	4.74	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.20	1.19	74%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.00	14.93	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	1.46	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.55	4.00	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.02	88%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.33	3.47	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	1.20	68%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.75	2.50	24%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.36	1.27	48%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.32u	−25% ROI

Toulouse vs Le Havre 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled