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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Rennes — Le Mans

Rennes vs Le Mans 3:2: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Rennes
Rennes
Home · last 5 D W W W L
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug · 15:15
3:2
Full-time
Le Mans
Le Mans
L D D W L Away · last 5
Roazhon Park · Rennes Referee Romain Lissorgue, France
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 41% · book 2.78 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 44% · book 2.40 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 55% · book 1.72 ✓
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
2.66 – 2.99
Δ −0.33
Possession
64% – 36%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.78 — +12.6% better than the market.

Rennes hosts Le Mans in a Ligue 1 clash where both sides show similar recent form, each drawing their last five matches. Rennes enjoys a mild home edge, likely to press with intensity at Roazhon Park, while Le Mans' slightly better recent points per game hints at resilience on the road. Expect a tactical battle with cautious approaches and a moderate tempo, as odds suggest a low-scoring game.

  • Home momentum could spark early pressure
  • Le Mans' defensive discipline may limit chances
  • Under 2.5 goals likely given balanced form and cautious play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 2.78 ✗ Lost
AI 41% Implied 36% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

REN 4-3-3 · LE- 3-1-4-2
REN · 4-3-3 3-1-4-2 · LE- 16 Lemaitre 95 Frankowski 48 Boudlal 4 Cresswell 26 Merlin 17 Szymański 21 Rongier ⚽ 28 Thomasson 11 Tamari 9 Lepaul ⚽ 90 Soumaré 98 Kocik 21 Eyoum 15 Boissé 5 Voyer 8 Lauray 18 Buades 29 Bretelle 11 Bourabaa 22 Calodat 25 Gueye 14 Mafouta ⚽
Subs used · REN
60' Camara ↑ · Szymanski ↓
60' Nordin ↑ · Soumare ↓
74' Blas ↑ · Rongier ↓
74' Mayenda ↑ · Tamari ↓
78' Nagida ↑ · Merlin ↓
Subs used · LE-
60' Vercruysse ↑ · Bretelle ↓
68' Rabillard ↑ · Gueye ↓
68' Sidibe ↑ · Calodat ↓
81' Hatfout ↑ · Kocik ↓
81' Robin ↑ · Bourabaa ↓

Statistics

REN 3 – 2 LE-
64%
Possession (%)
36%
2.66
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.99
22
Total Shots
12
8
Shots on Target
5
8
Shots off Target
4
17
Shots Inside Box
8
8
Corner Kicks
6
2
Offsides
3
15
Fouls
15
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
70%
3
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

21 · 3 – 2
E. Lepaul
Assist · A. Thomasson · 1–0
⚽
5'
V. Rongier
Assist · I. Soumare · 2–0
⚽
26'
30'
⚽
L. Mafouta
Assist · L. Calodat · 2–1
Half-time · 2 – 1
I. Soumare
Yellow Card
▮
48'
54'
⚽
L. Mafouta (P)
Penalty · 2–2
M. Camara ↓ · S. Szymanski ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
60'
A. Nordin ↓ · I. Soumare ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
60'
⇄
J. Vercruysse ↓ · L. Bretelle ↑
Substitution 1
66'
▮
A. Lauray
Yellow Card
68'
⇄
A. Rabillard ↓ · D. Gueye ↑
Substitution 2
68'
⇄
D. Sidibe ↓ · L. Calodat ↑
Substitution 3
68'
▮
D. Sidibe
Red Card
L. Blas ↓ · V. Rongier ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
E. Mayenda ↓ · M. Tamari ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
M. Nagida ↓ · Q. Merlin ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
78'
81'
⇄
E. Hatfout ↓ · N. Kocik ↑
Substitution 4
81'
⇄
M. Robin ↓ · A. Bourabaa ↑
Substitution 5
E. Lepaul (P)
Penalty · 3–2
⚽
90+6'
E. Lepaul
Yellow Card
▮
90+6'
A. Ait Boudlal
Yellow Card
▮
90+12'
90+12'
▮
H. Voyer
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Rennes beat Le Mans 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 12, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: E. Lepaul (5'), V. Rongier (26'), L. Mafouta (30'), L. Mafouta (54'), E. Lepaul (90+6'). D. Sidibe was sent off in the 68' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.42 units (Brier 0.142).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 2.78 2.80 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.40 2.38 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.72 1.74 55% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
BTTS No 2.05 2.01 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.42 2.45 34% Cashed +1.42 Cashed
Away Win 6.75 6.99 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.44 1.41 59% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.57 1.57 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.12 1.11 80% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.57 1.53 56% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.14 1.14 59% Cashed +0.14 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.78 5.00 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 17.00 16.95 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.18 5.38 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.72 4.88 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 94% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.15 1.17 78% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.42u −32% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
REN – LE- @ 2.78
+12.6%
Edge
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