Model verdict
AI picks Under 0.5 at 19.50 — +10.5% better than the market.
AI picks Under 0.5 at 19.50 — +10.5% better than the market.
Rennes beat Auxerre 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.61 to 1.77. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 12, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Esteban Lepaul (15'), Cameron Archer (25'), Adrien Thomasson (53'), Boulaye Dia (90+2'), Boulaye Dia (90+4').
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.85 units (Brier 0.118).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 1.69 | 1.73 | 64% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.55 | 2.61 | 43% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 2.13 | 2.20 | 44% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.65 | 1.63 | 56% | Cashed | +0.65 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.26 | 2.10 | 36% | Cashed | +1.26 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.40 | 1.42 | 70% | Cashed | +0.40 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 5.30 | 5.49 | 21% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.11 | 1.11 | 90% | Cashed | +0.11 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 57% | Cashed | +0.45 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.81 | 2.75 | 30% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 70% | Cashed | +0.14 | Cashed |
| Under 0.5 | 19.50 | 16.95 | 6% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 94% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.88 | 4.67 | 19% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 79% | Cashed | +0.12 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 6.69 | 6.76 | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 5.10 | 5.29 | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 9 L | −5.85u | −34% ROI |