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Home › Poland › Ekstraklasa › Lech Poznan — Motor Lublin

Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Poland   /   Ekstraklasa Value pick inside
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
Home · last 5 W W D W D
Kick-off
Sun 02 Nov · 13:45
2:2
Full-time
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
L L W D L Away · last 5
Referee Sebastian Krasny, Poland
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 40% · book 2.63 ✗
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 62% · book 1.67 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 42% · book 2.43 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 5.60 — +6.1% better than the market.

Lech Poznan holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, showing resilience with recent draws and a win. Their offensive strength challenges Motor Lublin's defense, which has struggled lately. Expect a controlled pace with Lech's compact block and set-piece threat pressing the visitors.

  • Home side's attacking edge versus away defense
  • Better recent form and home advantage
  • Moderate tempo suggests tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 5.60 ✗ Lost
AI 19% Implied 18% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

LEC 2 – 2 MOT
60%
Possession (%)
40%
18
Total Shots
8
3
Shots on Target
2
8
Shots off Target
5
8
Shots Inside Box
7
6
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
15
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match recap

Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 8, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.93 units (Brier 0.208).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.63 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.67 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.43 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.62 — 58% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.36 — 38% Cashed +1.36 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.57 — 34% Cashed +1.57 Cashed
Home Win 1.58 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.18 — 87% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.54 — 60% Cashed +0.54 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.25 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.60 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 19.00 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 — 95% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 4.60 — 21% Cashed +3.60 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.17 — 81% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Away Win 5.50 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.94 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.93u −5% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
LEC – MOT @ 5.60
+6.1%
Edge
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