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Home › England › Premier League › Newcastle — Burnley

Newcastle vs Burnley 2:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Sat 06 Dec · 15:00
2:1
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle Referee Stuart Attwell, England
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 49% · book 2.42 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.81 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 45% · book 2.10 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.89 – 1.38
Δ +0.51
Possession
69% – 31%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.55 — +8.3% better than the market.

Newcastle arrives with clear home momentum, boasting a stronger overall quality and a notable edge in attack against Burnley's defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while Burnley struggles for consistency on the road. Expect Newcastle's compact block and set-piece threat to challenge Burnley's less potent offense.

  • Home side's defensive solidity contrasts with Burnley's attacking struggles
  • Newcastle's pressing and tactical discipline likely to control tempo
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play over open end-to-end action

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.55 ✓ Cashed
AI 70% Implied 65% +0.55u
+55%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · BUR 4-3-3
NEW · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · BUR 32 Ramsdale 21 Livramento 5 Schär 12 Thiaw 33 Burn 28 Willock 39 Guimarães ⚽ 41 Ramsey 20 Elanga 27 Woltemade 10 Gordon ⚽ 1 Dúbravka 2 Walker 18 Ekdal 5 Estève 23 Pires 8 Ugochukwu 24 Cullen 16 Luís 9 Foster 27 Broja 7 Larsen
Subs used · NEW
63' Hall ↑ · Burn ↓
63' Miley ↑ · Willock ↓
74' Joelinton ↑ · Gordon ↓
74' Wissa ↑ · Woltemade ↓
90+5' Tonali ↑ · Ramsey ↓
Subs used · BUR
46' Worrall ↑ · Foster ↓
65' Laurent ↑ · Florentino ↓
86' Anthony ↑ · Bruun Larsen ↓
86' Flemming ↑ · Broja ↓
90+5' Edwards ↑ · Ekdal ↓

Statistics

NEW 2 – 1 BUR
69%
Possession (%)
31%
1.89
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.38
17
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
2
6
Shots Inside Box
4
9
Corner Kicks
9
3
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
11
91%
Pass Accuracy (%)
72%
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match events

18 · 2 – 1
Bruno Guimaraes
1–0
⚽
31'
35'
▮
Kyle Walker
Yellow Card
43'
▮
Lucas Pires
Red Card
A. Gordon (P)
Penalty · 2–0
⚽
45'
Half-time · 2 – 0
46'
⇄
J. Worrall ↓ · L. Foster ↑
Substitution 1
Valentino Livramento
Yellow Card
▮
52'
L. Hall ↓ · D. Burn ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
63'
L. Miley ↓ · J. Willock ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
65'
⇄
J. Laurent ↓ · Florentino ↑
Substitution 2
Joelinton ↓ · A. Gordon ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
Y. Wissa ↓ · N. Woltemade ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
86'
⇄
J. Anthony ↓ · J. Bruun Larsen ↑
Substitution 3
86'
⇄
Z. Flemming ↓ · A. Broja ↑
Substitution 4
89'
▮
Josh Laurent
Yellow Card
90'
⚽
Z. Flemming (P)
Penalty · 2–1
Jacob Ramsey
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
S. Tonali ↓ · J. Ramsey ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+5'
90+5'
⇄
M. Edwards ↓ · H. Ekdal ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Newcastle beat Burnley 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.89 to 1.38. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 8, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Bruno Guimaraes (31'), A. Gordon (45'), Z. Flemming (90'). Lucas Pires was sent off in the 43' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.94 units (Brier 0.094).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.42 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.81 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.10 — 45% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.66 — 51% Cashed +0.66 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.56 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.55 — 70% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Under 1.5 5.00 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.32 — 77% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.08 — 94% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.11 — 77% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Under 0.5 17.50 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.21 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 93% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.95 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.20 — 75% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Away Win 11.50 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.60 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.94u −35% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
NEW – BUR @ 1.55
+8.3%
Edge
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