Atalanta vs Cagliari 1:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.91 — +14.6% better than the market.

Atalanta show signs of home momentum with a stronger recent form and higher points per game compared to Cagliari. The home side's attacking potential could be somewhat contained by Cagliari's resilient defense, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. The balanced odds on under 2.5 goals hint at a moderately paced game where defensive organization might prevail.

Atalanta's home edge in form and points
Cagliari's defensive resilience
Moderate pace suggested by goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.91 ✗ Lost

AI 60% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ATA 4-3-3 · CAG 4-3-2-1

ATA · 4-3-3 4-3-2-1 · CAG

11 Rowe

Subs used · ATA

68'

Bernasconi ↑ ·

Kolasinac ↓

68'

Krstovic ↑ ·

Scamacca ↓

77'

Raspadori ↑ ·

Samardzic ↓

86'

Pasalic ↑ ·

Kessie ↓

Subs used · CAG

57'

Fadera ↑ ·

Fazzini ↓

68'

Sugawara ↑ ·

Pedro ↓

79'

Kevin ↑ ·

Mendy ↓

79'

Kofler ↑ ·

Maldini ↓

Statistics

ATA 1 – 2 CAG

62%

Possession (%)

38%

1.26

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.10

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

11 · 1 – 2

19'

⚽

P. Mendy

Assist · M. Adopo · 0–1

G. Scamacca

Assist · C. De Ketelaere · 1–1

⚽

41'

Half-time · 1 – 1

57'

⇄

A. Fadera ↓ · J. Fazzini ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⚽

D. Maldini (P)

Penalty · 1–2

L. Bernasconi ↓ · S. Kolasinac ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

N. Krstovic ↓ · G. Scamacca ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

⇄

Y. Sugawara ↓ · J. Pedro ↑

Substitution 2

G. Raspadori ↓ · L. Samardzic ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

79'

⇄

Kevin ↓ · P. Mendy ↑

Substitution 3

79'

⇄

R. Kofler ↓ · D. Maldini ↑

Substitution 4

M. Pasalic ↓ · F. Kessie ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Cagliari won 2–1 away at Atalanta. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 5, 4 on target.

On the scoresheet: P. Mendy (19'), G. Scamacca (41'), D. Maldini (61').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +2.99 units (Brier 0.281).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.91	1.97	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.77	1.91	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.13	2.12	47%	Cashed	+1.13	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.91	1.91	40%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.98	1.84	37%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	10.99	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.47	3.75	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.90	5.00	20%	Cashed	+4.90	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.32	1.33	81%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.13	1.17	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.70	1.70	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.95	3.80	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.45	3.68	20%	Cashed	+3.45	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	1.04	82%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	1.25	63%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.18	1.25	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.28	3.12	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+2.99u	+18% ROI

Atalanta vs Cagliari 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled