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Home › Italy › Serie A › AS Roma — Atalanta

AS Roma vs Atalanta 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AS Roma
AS Roma
Home · last 5 W W W D D
Kick-off
Sat 05 Sep · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Atalanta
Atalanta
W L L L W Away · last 5
Referee A. Colombo
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 61% · book 1.81 ✓
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 66% · book 1.76 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 55% · book 1.72 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.81 — +9.8% better than the market.

AS Roma arrives with strong home momentum, having won their last match and maintaining a perfect recent points record. Their attacking potential looks promising against Atalanta's defense, suggesting a lively contest. The pace hints at a moderately open game, supported by odds favoring over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

  • Home side's recent form edge
  • Attacking threat vs defensive resilience
  • Moderate tempo encouraging goal opportunities

Atalanta, despite a slightly lower points per game, showed resilience with a recent win and could exploit set-piece chances. Their tactical discipline may challenge Roma's forward line, making this a balanced matchup with a slight home advantage.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 1.81 ✓ Cashed
AI 61% Implied 55% +0.81u
+81%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ROM 3-4-1-2 · ATA 4-3-3
ROM · 3-4-1-2 4-3-3 · ATA 99 Svilar 23 Mancini 5 Ndicka 22 Hermoso ⚽ 77 Lulli 4 Cristante 17 Koné 43 Wesley 86 Mora 14 Malen 21 Dybala 29 Carnesecchi 16 Bellanova 3 Kossounou 42 Scalvini 23 Kolašinac 10 Samardžić 70 Gaetano 13 Éderson ⚽ 17 De Ketelaere 9 Scamacca 99 Elmas
Subs used · ROM
54' Molina ↑ · Lulli ↓
54' Soule ↑ · Mora ↓
62' Ghilardi ↑ · Mancini ↓
63' Castro ↑ · Malen ↓
67' Balerdi ↑ · Ndicka ↓
Subs used · ATA
45' Krstović ↑ · Scamacca ↓
66' Zalewski ↑ · Elmas ↓
66' Pašalić ↑ · Samardzic ↓
73' Zappacosta ↑ · Kolašinac ↓
79' Kessié ↑ · Santos ↓

Statistics

ROM 2 – 1 ATA
67%
Possession (%)
33%
39
Total Shots
6
10
Shots on Target
2
20
Shots off Target
3
27
Shots Inside Box
6
14
Corner Kicks
1
4
Offsides
4
9
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
9

Match events

17 · 2 – 1
Gian Piero Gasperini
Yellow Card
▮
40'
45'
⇄
Nikola Krstović ↓ · Gianluca Scamacca ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
47'
⚽
Éderson José dos Santos
0–1
Nahuel Molina ↓ · Emanuele Lulli ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
54'
Matias Soule ↓ · Rodrigo Mora ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
54'
55'
▮
Maurizio Sarri
Yellow Card
Daniele Ghilardi ↓ · Gianluca Mancini ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
62'
Santiago Thomas Castro ↓ · Donyell Malen ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
63'
66'
⇄
Nicola Zalewski ↓ · Elif Elmas ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⇄
Mario Pašalić ↓ · Lazar Samardzic ↑
Substitution 3
Leonardo Balerdi ↓ · Evan Ndicka ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
67'
73'
⇄
Davide Zappacosta ↓ · Sead Kolašinac ↑
Substitution 4
79'
⇄
Franck Kessié ↓ · Éderson José dos Santos ↑
Substitution 5
84'
▮
Raoul Bellanova
Yellow Card
Mario Hermoso
Assist · Matias Soule · 1–1
⚽
89'
Matias Soule
Assist · Paulo Dybala · 2–1
⚽
90+3'
90+7'
▮
Gianluca Gaetano
Red Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

AS Roma beat Atalanta 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 39 shots to 6, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 14 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves.

On the scoresheet: Éderson José dos Santos (47'), Mario Hermoso (89'), Matias Soule (90+3'). Gianluca Gaetano was sent off in the 90+7' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.54 units (Brier 0.112).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.81 1.69 61% Cashed +0.81 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.76 1.76 66% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Home Win 1.72 1.69 55% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.91 2.10 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.93 2.07 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.20 2.20 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.75 2.75 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 1.22 85% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.21 1.19 77% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.28 1.26 54% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.04 3.52 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.04 94% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Away Win 4.15 5.00 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.45 3.91 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.43 1.43 54% Cashed +0.43 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.10 4.10 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 12.99 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.54u −33% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
ROM – ATA @ 1.81
+9.8%
Edge
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