P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Poland Ekstraklasa Lech Poznan — Jagiellonia

Match Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia September 28, 2025

Poland   /   Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
Home · last 5 W W D W D
Kick-off
Sun 28 Sep · 12:45
2:2
Full-time
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
L W W D W Away · last 5
Stadion Poznan · Poznań Referee Bartosz Frankowski, Poland
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 65% · book 1.53
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.57
Miss
AH Home 0
AH Home 0
AI 58% · book 1.40
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.63 – 0.90
Δ +0.73
Possession
53% – 47%
AI accuracy
5 / 8
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This match features two teams with similar overall strength but contrasting defensive profiles. Lech Poznan enjoys a clear home advantage and has shown a balanced form with a mix of draws and wins, while Jagiellonia arrives with a slightly less consistent away record but better defensive solidity. The attacking threat from both sides is moderate, suggesting a competitive game with a reasonable chance of goals but not a high-scoring affair.

Given the home edge and recent form, Lech Poznan is favored to win, but the away side’s resilience keeps the draw and away win plausible outcomes. The model leans towards a match with goals, supporting BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 Goals markets. Asian Handicap on the home side also offers value given the home team's steadier performance and venue advantage.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

LEC 4-4-2 · JAG 4-4-2
Subs used · LEC
59' Ouma ↑ · Thordarson
59' Ismaheel ↑ · Rodríguez
60' Gurgul ↑ · Moutinho
80' Lisman ↑ · Bengtsson
83' Agnero ↑ · Kozubal
Subs used · JAG
71' Drachal ↑ · Flach
71' Wojtuszek ↑ · Jóźwiak
78' Jackson ↑ · Imaz
86' Cantero ↑ · Pozo
86' Rallis ↑ · Pietuszewski

📊 Statistics

LEC 22 JAG
53%
Possession (%)
47%
1.63
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.90
13
Total Shots
15
6
Shots on Target
3
2
Shots off Target
5
9
Shots Inside Box
11
5
Corner Kicks
10
0
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
13
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
1
Yellow Cards
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

19 · 2 – 2
15'
Oskar Pietuszewski
Yellow Card
Gisli Thordarson
Yellow Card
45'
Half-time · 0 – 0
Leo Bengtsson
Assist · Filip Jagiełło · 1–0
46'
45+3'
Jesús Imaz
Assist · Alejandro Pozo · 1–1
48'
Oskar Pietuszewski
Assist · Afimico Pululu · 1–2
57'
Leon Flach
Yellow Card
Mikael Ishak (P)
Penalty · 2–2
59'
Timothy Ouma ↓ · Gisli Thordarson ↑
Substitution 1
59'
Taofeek Ismaheel ↓ · Pablo Rodríguez ↑
Substitution 2
59'
Michal Gurgul ↓ · João Moutinho ↑
Substitution 3
60'
71'
Dawid Drachal ↓ · Leon Flach ↑
Substitution 1
71'
Norbert Wojtuszek ↓ · Kamil Jóźwiak ↑
Substitution 2
76'
Andy Pelmard
Yellow Card
78'
Aziel Jackson ↓ · Jesús Imaz ↑
Substitution 3
Kornel Lisman ↓ · Leo Bengtsson ↑
Substitution 4
80'
83'
Taras Romanczuk
Yellow Card
Yannick Agnero ↓ · Antoni Kozubal ↑
Substitution 5
83'
86'
Álejandro Cantero ↓ · Alejandro Pozo ↑
Substitution 4
86'
Dimitris Rallis ↓ · Oskar Pietuszewski ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

8 · 5 W · 3 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.53 65% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.57 60% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.40 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.30 78% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.15 85% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Home Win 1.84 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.10 22% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
Away Win 3.90 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 8 markets @ 1u each 5 W · 3 L +1.65u +21% ROI