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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Borussia Mönchengladbach — FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 3:4: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 13:30
3:4
Full-time
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
D W L W L Away · last 5
Borussia-Park · Monchengladbach Referee Robert Hartmann
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 68% · book 1.63 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.40 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 44% · book 2.53 ✗
Total goals
7
3 · 4
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.40 — +15.0% better than the market.

Borussia Mönchengladbach face a tough challenge hosting FSV Mainz 05, who show better recent form and slightly higher scoring potential. Gladbach's home momentum is lacking with no points from recent matches, while Mainz's mixed results hint at resilience. Expect a cautious game with a moderate pace, as both sides have similar expected goals, suggesting a balanced contest.

  • Mainz's away resilience contrasts with Gladbach's home struggles.
  • Both teams show comparable attacking threat and defensive solidity.
  • Odds suggest a match under 3.5 goals, favoring a compact, tactical battle.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.40 ✗ Lost
AI 48% Implied 42% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MOE 3-4-2-1 · MAI 3-5-2
MOE · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · MAI 1 Nicolas 6 Itakura 4 Diks ⚽ 5 Leszczyński 29 Scally 16 Sander 10 Neuhaus ⚽ 26 Ullrich 9 Honorat 38 Bolin 3 Lidberg ⚽ 1 Schwolow 4 Posch 3 Gruber 48 Potulski 19 Caci 7 Jae-Sung 6 Sano 10 Amiri 2 Mwene 9 Tietz ⚽ 23 Becker ⚽
Subs used · MOE
64' Mohya ↑ · Neuhaus ↓
76' Stöger ↑ · Honorat ↓
76' Hashioka ↑ · Scally ↓
84' Machino ↑ · Itakura ↓
84' Hack ↑ · Bolin ↓
Subs used · MAI
65' Costa ↑ · Caci ↓
65' Martel ↑ · Jae-Sung ↓
76' Konigsdorffer ↑ · Becker ↓
90+1' Maloney ↑ · Amiri ↓

Statistics

MOE 3 – 4 MAI
47%
Possession (%)
53%
21
Total Shots
17
7
Shots on Target
8
7
Shots off Target
7
15
Shots Inside Box
15
6
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
2
12
Fouls
14
6
Yellow Cards
5
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

28 · 3 – 4
Florian Neuhaus
Assist · Lukas Ullrich · 1–0
⚽
11'
18'
⚽
Phillip Tietz
Assist · Sheraldo Becker · 1–1
Lukas Ullrich
Yellow Card
▮
19'
45+1'
⚽
Sheraldo Becker
Assist · Anthony Caci · 1–2
Half-time · 1 – 2
55'
▮
Stefan Posch
Yellow Card
Philipp Sander
Yellow Card
▮
55'
Kevin Diks (P)
Penalty · 2–2
⚽
57'
Isac Lidberg
Assist · Lukas Ullrich · 3–2
⚽
59'
Florian Neuhaus
Yellow Card
▮
62'
Wael Mohya ↓ · Florian Neuhaus ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
64'
65'
⇄
Danny da Costa ↓ · Anthony Caci ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
Eric Martel ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑
Substitution 2
73'
▮
Phillipp Mwene
Yellow Card
76'
⇄
Ransford Konigsdorffer ↓ · Sheraldo Becker ↑
Substitution 3
Kevin Stöger ↓ · Franck Honorat ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
76'
Daiki Hashioka ↓ · Joe Scally ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
78'
⚽
Eric Martel
Assist · Kaishu Sano · 3–3
Shuto Machino ↓ · Ko Itakura ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
Robin Hack ↓ · Hugo Bolin ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Wael Mohya
Yellow Card
▮
87'
Kevin Stöger
Yellow Card
▮
87'
89'
⚽
Danny da Costa
3–4
90+1'
⇄
Lennard Maloney ↓ · Nadiem Amiri ↑
Substitution 4
90+3'
▮
Kacper Potulski
Yellow Card
Shuto Machino
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
90+4'
▮
Alexander Schwolow
Yellow Card
Shuto Machino (P)
Penalty · 4–4
⚽
90+5'
90+7'
▮
Ransford Konigsdorffer
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 4

Match recap

FSV Mainz 05 won 4–3 away at Borussia Mönchengladbach. At half-time it was 1–2.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 17, 7 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 11 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Florian Neuhaus (11'), Phillip Tietz (18'), Sheraldo Becker (45+1'), Isac Lidberg (59'), Eric Martel (78'), Danny da Costa (89'), Shuto Machino (90+5').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.36 units (Brier 0.194).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.63 1.73 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.40 2.62 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.53 2.80 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.30 2.20 41% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.10 2.10 35% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.20 2.28 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.72 1.66 41% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.42 1.38 66% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.55 1.64 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.90 5.49 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.84 3.00 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.48 1.39 56% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.43 1.43 55% Cashed +0.43 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 16.95 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.02 93% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 3.65 3.83 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.16 1.10 75% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.36u −26% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
MOE – MAI @ 2.40
+15.0%
Edge
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