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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Werder Bremen — FC Augsburg

Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
Home · last 5 L W D W D
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 13:30
3:2
Full-time
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
W W D L D Away · last 5
Weser-Stadion · Bremen Referee Bastian Dankert
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 63% · book 1.66 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 39% · book 2.62 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 39% · book 2.88 ✗
Total goals
5
3 · 2
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.88 — +11.0% better than the market.

Werder Bremen shows signs of home momentum despite mixed recent results, holding a slight edge in points per game over FC Augsburg. The matchup hints at a balanced contest with both sides capable of scoring, supported by steady expected goals figures. Bremen's home familiarity and Augsburg's resilience set the stage for a tactical battle with moderate tempo and goal opportunities.

  • Home side's solid form at home
  • Augsburg's recent winning streak
  • Balanced attacking and defensive capabilities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.88 ✗ Lost
AI 39% Implied 35% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

WER 4-2-3-1 · AUG 3-4-2-1
WER · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · AUG 1 Hein 13 Arthur 5 Pieper 32 Friedl 2 Deman 44 Regeer 15 Reis 18 Dinkçi 20 José 17 Grüll ⚽ 10 Füllkrug ⚽ 1 Dahmen 40 Banks 5 Matsima 2 Brackelmann ⚽ 27 Wolf 4 Massengo 32 Rieder 16 Behrens 19 Fellhauer ⚽ 10 Kömür 11 Gregoritsch
Subs used · WER
68' Weiser ↑ · Dinkci ↓
78' Musah ↑ · Reis ↓
79' Wójcik ↑ · Pieper ↓
90+4' Schmetgens ↑ · Soares ↓
Subs used · AUG
52' Keitel ↑ · Massengo ↓
53' Ribeiro ↑ · Gregoritsch ↓
53' Claude-Maurice ↑ · Kömür ↓
74' Young-woo ↑ · Wolf ↓
83' Gouweleeuw ↑ · Brackelmann ↓

Statistics

WER 3 – 2 AUG
59%
Possession (%)
41%
20
Total Shots
7
11
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
1
17
Shots Inside Box
5
2
Corner Kicks
2
2
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match events

19 · 3 – 2
5'
▮
Han-Noah Massengo
Yellow Card
18'
⚽
Robin Fellhauer
Assist · Fabian Rieder · 0–1
Arthur Augusto De Matos Soares
Yellow Card
▮
27'
Half-time · 0 – 1
52'
⇄
Yannik Keitel ↓ · Han-Noah Massengo ↑
Substitution 1
53'
⇄
Rodrigo Ribeiro ↓ · Michael Gregoritsch ↑
Substitution 2
53'
⇄
Alexis Claude-Maurice ↓ · Mert Kömür ↑
Substitution 3
58'
⚽
Calvin Marc Brackelmann
Assist · Alexis Claude-Maurice · 0–2
Marco Grüll
Yellow Card
▮
60'
Marco Grüll
Assist · Iván San José Cantalejo · 1–2
⚽
66'
Mitchell Weiser ↓ · Eren Dinkci ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
73'
▮
M. Baum
Yellow Card
74'
⇄
Seol Young-woo ↓ · Marius Wolf ↑
Substitution 4
77'
▮
Hennes Behrens
Yellow Card
Salim Amani Musah ↓ · Ludovit Reis ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
78'
Oskar Wójcik ↓ · Amos Pieper ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
79'
83'
⇄
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw ↓ · Calvin Marc Brackelmann ↑
Substitution 5
Niclas Füllkrug
2–2
⚽
86'
Mitchell Weiser
Assist · Marco Grüll · 3–2
⚽
90+3'
Mick Schmetgens ↓ · Arthur Augusto De Matos Soares ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+4'
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Werder Bremen beat FC Augsburg 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 7, 11 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Robin Fellhauer (18'), Calvin Marc Brackelmann (58'), Marco Grüll (66'), Niclas Füllkrug (86'), Mitchell Weiser (90+3').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.36 units (Brier 0.168).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.66 1.80 63% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.62 3.00 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.88 2.88 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.34 2.27 42% Cashed +1.34 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.62 1.63 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.73 2.85 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.00 2.10 39% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.81 1.73 42% Cashed +0.81 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.11 2.17 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.40 1.42 67% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.44 1.36 61% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.48 1.40 59% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Under 0.5 19.00 18.87 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.50 6.49 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 95% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.75 3.83 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.15 1.10 80% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.36u −26% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
WER – AUG @ 2.88
+11.0%
Edge
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