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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › FSV Mainz 05 — SC Paderborn 07

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 0:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Home · last 5 D W L W L
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug · 13:30
0:0
Full-time
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee T. Stieler
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 44% · book 2.39 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.67 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 43% · book 2.20 ✓
Total goals
0
0 · 0
xG (open play)
1.24 – 0.76
Δ +0.48
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.68 — +14.7% better than the market.

With limited recent form and strength data, this Bundesliga opener between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 hints at a balanced contest. The odds suggest a moderately open game with a slight home edge, likely influenced by Mainz's familiarity with their ground and a pressing style that could challenge Paderborn's defense. Expect a moderate tempo with chances for both sides, as indicated by the market leaning towards over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

  • Mainz’s home familiarity offers a subtle advantage.
  • Paderborn’s defense may be tested by Mainz’s pressing.
  • Market signals point to a lively, goal-involved match.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 4.68 ✗ Lost
AI 25% Implied 21% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MAI 3-1-4-2 · PAD 3-4-3
MAI · 3-1-4-2 3-4-3 · PAD 27 Zentner 21 da Costa 3 Gruber 31 Kohr 6 Sano 19 Caci 7 Jae-Sung 10 Amiri 2 Mwene 23 Becker 9 Tietz 15 Noll 21 ter Horst 25 Scheller 22 Hansen 17 Curda 28 Ulrich 5 Castañeda 23 Obermair 30 Marino 18 Pieringer 40 Vidović
Subs used · MAI
68' Ruoppi ↑ · Becker ↓
68' Konigsdorffer ↑ · Jae-Sung ↓
73' Widmer ↑ · Caci ↓
80' Potulski ↑ · Kohr ↓
Subs used · PAD
67' Tigges ↑ · Marino ↓
75' Sticker ↑ · Hansen ↓
75' Baack ↑ · Ulrich ↓
90+2' Lippmann ↑ · Pieringer ↓

Statistics

MAI 0 – 0 PAD
51%
Possession (%)
49%
1.24
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.76
22
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
0
12
Shots off Target
6
15
Shots Inside Box
6
11
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
1
8
Fouls
10
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

11 · 0 – 0
38'
▮
S. Castaneda
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
67'
⇄
S. Tigges ↓ · S. Marino ↑
Substitution 1
O. Ruoppi ↓ · S. Becker ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
R. Konigsdorffer ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
72'
▮
M. Hansen
Yellow Card
S. Widmer ↓ · A. Caci ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
73'
75'
⇄
J. Sticker ↓ · M. Hansen ↑
Substitution 2
75'
⇄
T. Baack ↓ · L. Ulrich ↑
Substitution 3
K. Potulski ↓ · D. Kohr ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
P. Mwene
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
90+2'
⇄
C. Lippmann ↓ · M. Pieringer ↑
Substitution 4
Full-time · 0 – 0

Match recap

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 10, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +2.58 units (Brier 0.292).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 2.39 2.39 44% Cashed +1.39 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.67 1.62 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.20 2.45 43% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.67 1.63 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.14 2.21 44% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.67 2.38 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.56 1.56 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 1.53 65% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Away Win 4.68 5.49 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.95 4.37 24% Cashed +2.95 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.20 1.17 78% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.27 4.69 22% Cashed +3.27 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.19 1.15 75% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.47 4.15 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.28 1.20 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L +2.58u +17% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
MAI – PAD @ 4.68
+14.7%
Edge
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