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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart

Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart 5:1: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Bayern München
Bayern München
Home · last 5 W D W W D
Kick-off
Fri 28 Aug · 18:30
5:1
Full-time
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
L W L L W Away · last 5
Referee Sören Storks, Germany
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 40% · book 2.38 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 36% · book 2.61 ✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 18% · book 8.75 ✗
Total goals
6
5 · 1
xG (open play)
3.93 – 0.86
Δ +3.07
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 6.50 — +9.3% better than the market.

Bayern München are expected to hold a clear advantage at home despite limited recent form data. The strong home edge and Stuttgart's away challenges suggest Bayern's attacking prowess could dominate, especially given the market's lean towards a high-scoring game. Early signs point to a match with multiple goals, where Bayern's pressing and set-piece threat may unlock Stuttgart's defense.

  • Home momentum likely favors Bayern
  • Stuttgart may struggle to contain Bayern's offense
  • Market hints at an open, goal-rich encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Draw
Draw @ 6.50 ✗ Lost
AI 17% Implied 15% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BAY 4-2-3-1 · STU 3-4-2-1
BAY · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · STU 1 Neuer 27 Laimer 2 Upamecano ⚽ 3 Min-jae 19 Davies 6 Kimmich 45 Pavlović ⚽ 17 Olise ⚽ 11 Brown 14 Díaz ⚽ 9 Kane 1 Bredlow 29 Jeltsch 24 Chabot 3 Hendriks 4 Vagnoman ⚽ 21 Prömel 6 Stiller 7 Mittelstädt 8 Tomás 26 Undav 17 Pejčinović
Subs used · BAY
61' Saibari ↑ · Brown ↓
74' Stanisic ↑ · Davies ↓
84' Karl ↑ · Kane ↓
84' Tah ↑ · Min-Jae ↓
84' Bischof ↑ · Pavlovic ↓
Subs used · STU
62' Leweling ↑ · Tomas ↓
63' Demirovic ↑ · Pejcinovic ↓
74' Stergiou ↑ · Undav ↓
74' El Khannouss ↑ · Chabot ↓
88' Andres ↑ · Stiller ↓

Statistics

BAY 5 – 1 STU
59%
Possession (%)
41%
3.93
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.86
21
Total Shots
11
9
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
3
14
Shots Inside Box
7
9
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
17
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
76%
1
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

20 · 5 – 1
D. Upamecano
Assist · J. Kimmich · 1–0
⚽
21'
Half-time · 1 – 0
52'
⚽
J. Vagnoman
1–1
M. Olise
Assist · J. Kimmich · 2–1
⚽
55'
J. Vagnoman
Own goal · 3–1
⚽
57'
I. Saibari ↓ · N. Brown ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
62'
▮
J. Chabot
Yellow Card
62'
⇄
J. Leweling ↓ · T. Tomas ↑
Substitution 1
63'
⇄
E. Demirovic ↓ · D. Pejcinovic ↑
Substitution 2
68'
▮
F. Jeltsch
Yellow Card
J. Stanisic ↓ · A. Davies ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
74'
⇄
L. Stergiou ↓ · D. Undav ↑
Substitution 3
74'
⇄
B. El Khannouss ↓ · J. Chabot ↑
Substitution 4
Kim Min-Jae
Yellow Card
▮
81'
A. Pavlovic
Assist · I. Saibari · 4–1
⚽
82'
L. Karl ↓ · H. Kane ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
84'
J. Tah ↓ · Kim Min-Jae ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
T. Bischof ↓ · A. Pavlovic ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
88'
⇄
C. Andres ↓ · A. Stiller ↑
Substitution 5
L. Diaz
Assist · I. Saibari · 5–1
⚽
90+2'
90+3'
▮
G. Promel
Yellow Card
Full-time · 5 – 1

Match recap

Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 5–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.93 to 0.86. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 11, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Upamecano (21'), J. Vagnoman (52'), M. Olise (55'), J. Vagnoman (57'), A. Pavlovic (82'), L. Diaz (90+2').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -6.39 units (Brier 0.075).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 2.38 2.70 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.61 2.75 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.75 10.53 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 1.44 1.44 65% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.45 1.41 64% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.55 4.17 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.50 7.52 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.08 6.49 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.05 1.04 91% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Under 1.5 10.00 12.50 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.20 1.17 78% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Under 2.5 4.33 5.00 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.08 1.06 82% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Home Win 1.29 1.22 66% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.10 1.08 66% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −6.39u −43% ROI
Value pick of the night · Draw
BAY – STU @ 6.50
+9.3%
Edge
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