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Home › Spain › La Liga › Rayo Vallecano — Espanyol

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Home · last 5 L W L W D
Kick-off
Tue 15 Sep · 17:00
2:1
Full-time
Espanyol
Espanyol
D W L L D Away · last 5
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.91 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 1.99 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 59% · book 1.60 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
Possession
54% – 46%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.50 — +11.8% better than the market.

Rayo Vallecano shows stronger recent form and home momentum against Espanyol, who have struggled for consistency on the road. The home side's compact block and pressing edge could limit Espanyol’s attacking threat, while both teams have shown signs of defensive resilience, suggesting a cautious tempo. The balanced odds on under 2.5 goals hint at a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances.

  • Rayo’s home confidence and form advantage
  • Espanyol’s away struggles and defensive solidity
  • Likely tactical caution leading to fewer goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.50 ✗ Lost
AI 32% Implied 29% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RAY 4-3-3 · ESP 4-2-3-1
Subs used · RAY
61' Valentín ↑ · Sadick ↓
61' Bouare ↑ · López ↓
76' Martínez ↑ · Tsitaishvili ↓
76' Zurawski ↑ · Camello ↓
84' Balliu ↑ · García ↓
Subs used · ESP
45' Fernández ↑ · Hinojo ↓
45' Zaragoza ↑ · Bauzà ↓
45' Jaén ↑ · Moscardo ↓
74' Torrado ↑ · Coarasa ↓
84' Lozano ↑ · Gonzalez ↓

Statistics

RAY 2 – 1 ESP
54%
Possession (%)
46%
16
Total Shots
19
2
Shots on Target
5
10
Shots off Target
7
9
Shots Inside Box
12
3
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
15
5
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

20 · 2 – 1
Álvaro García
1–0
⚽
3'
Adrià Pedrosa
Assist · Álvaro García · 2–0
⚽
26'
45'
⇄
Marcos Fernández ↓ · Roger Hinojo ↑
Substitution 1
45'
⇄
Bryan Zaragoza ↓ · Rafel Bauzà ↑
Substitution 2
45'
⇄
Eduardo Expósito Jaén ↓ · Gabriel Moscardo ↑
Substitution 3
Unai López
Yellow Card
▮
45+2'
Half-time · 2 – 0
54'
⚽
Roberto Fernández Jaén
Assist · Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa · 2–1
Óscar Valentín ↓ · Mujaid Sadick ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
Gnangoro Bouare ↓ · Unai López ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
63'
▮
Marcos Fernández
Yellow Card
Georgiy Tsitaishvili
Yellow Card
▮
67'
Pathé Ciss
Yellow Card
▮
70'
74'
⇄
Álex Calatrava Torrado ↓ · Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa ↑
Substitution 4
Francisco Pérez Martínez ↓ · Georgiy Tsitaishvili ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
Alexandre Zurawski ↓ · Sergio Camello ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
Gnangoro Bouare
Yellow Card
▮
80'
84'
⇄
Pol Lozano ↓ · Urko Gonzalez ↑
Substitution 5
Ivan Balliu ↓ · Álvaro García ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Alexandre Zurawski
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
90+8'
▮
Omar El Hilali
Red Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano beat Espanyol 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Álvaro García (3'), Adrià Pedrosa (26'), Roberto Fernández Jaén (54'). Omar El Hilali was sent off in the 90+8' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.42 units (Brier 0.170).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.91 1.91 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.99 2.06 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.60 1.59 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.30 2.30 41% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.69 49% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.91 1.91 43% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.24 2.24 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.50 3.50 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.36 1.36 68% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.62 1.69 42% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 10.00 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.10 3.10 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.30 1.33 78% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 1.05 90% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.35 3.34 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.29 1.28 68% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.40 3.25 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.42u −26% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
RAY – ESP @ 3.50
+11.8%
Edge
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