P
Prognosist
P
Home › Spain › La Liga › Malaga — Villarreal

Predictions by Market: Malaga vs Villarreal

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Malaga
Malaga
Home · last 5 D D L L D
Kick-off
Thu 17 Sep · 19:30
1:3
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
L L W W L Away · last 5
La Rosaleda · Malaga Referee M. Ortiz

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MAL
30%
Best 3.85
Draw
24%
Best 3.94
Away Win · VIL
45%
Best 1.99
Value pick
Home Win
@ 3.50
Fair odds
3.30
book 3.50 · +5.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 30% · EV +5.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (45%), but Home Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 45.3%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 30.3%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 24.4%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 44.9%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 55.1%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 33.9%
Odds 2.56
Show model details
Implied probability 39.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 66.1%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 22.1%
Odds 4.38
Show model details
Implied probability 22.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.8%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 6.3%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 43.7%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.3%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 30.3%
Odds 2.66
Show model details
Implied probability 37.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 45.3%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 54.7%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 69.7%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
MAL – VIL @ 3.50
+5.9%
Edge
Forecast →