Malaga vs Villarreal 1:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 3.50 — +5.9% better than the market.

Malaga hosts Villarreal in a La Liga clash where both sides show similar recent form, though Malaga holds a slight edge in points per game. The home side's compact defensive shape could challenge Villarreal's more potent attack, but the visitors' ability to create chances suggests a lively encounter. Expect a balanced game with moderate tempo, leaning towards under 2.5 goals given both teams' cautious recent displays.

Malaga's home momentum and defensive resilience
Villarreal's superior chance creation
Moderate pace favoring a tactical battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 3.50 ✗ Lost

AI 30% Implied 29% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

MAL 4-1-4-1 · VIL 4-4-2

MAL · 4-1-4-1 4-4-2 · VIL

9 Chupe

Subs used · MAL

45'

Lorenzo ↑ ·

Cruz ↓

45'

Hierro ↑ ·

Salinas ↓

61'

Muñoz ↑ ·

Merino ↓

61'

Nino ↑ ·

Dotor ↓

75'

Enríquez ↑ ·

Puga ↓

Subs used · VIL

37'

Gueye ↑ ·

Comesaña ↓

63'

Mikautadze ↑ ·

Pérez ↓

63'

Romero ↑ ·

Chakkour ↓

80'

González ↑ ·

Moleiro ↓

80'

Macià ↑ ·

Saliba ↓

Statistics

MAL 1 – 3 VIL

37%

Possession (%)

63%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

20 · 1 – 3

Carlos Dotor

Assist · Juan Cruz · 1–0

⚽

12'

José Salinas

Yellow Card

▮

34'

37'

⇄

Pape Gueye ↓ · Santi Comesaña ↑

Substitution 1

40'

⚽

Alberto Moleiro

Assist · Ilias Akhomach Chakkour · 1–1

42'

▮

Ilias Akhomach Chakkour

Yellow Card

Dani Lorenzo ↓ · Juan Cruz ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Rafael Garrido Hierro ↓ · José Salinas ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

45'

45+2'

⚽

Pape Gueye

Assist · Ayoze Pérez · 1–2

Half-time · 1 – 2

Joaquín Muñoz ↓ · Izan Merino ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

Adrian Nino ↓ · Carlos Dotor ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

61'

63'

⇄

Georges Mikautadze ↓ · Ayoze Pérez ↑

Substitution 2

63'

⇄

Carlos Romero ↓ · Ilias Akhomach Chakkour ↑

Substitution 3

David Larrubia

Yellow Card

▮

68'

Einar Galilea

Yellow Card

▮

70'

Ramón Enríquez ↓ · Carlos Puga ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

75'

Ramón Enríquez

Yellow Card

▮

79'

80'

⇄

Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González ↓ · Alberto Moleiro ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

Carlos Macià ↓ · Nathan-Dylan Saliba ↑

Substitution 5

Alfonso Herrero

Yellow Card

▮

85'

86'

⚽

Pape Gueye (P)

Penalty · 1–3

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Villarreal won 3–1 away at Malaga. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 5, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Carlos Dotor (12'), Alberto Moleiro (40'), Pape Gueye (45+2'), Pape Gueye (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.21 units (Brier 0.176).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.30	2.33	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.20	2.30	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.80	1.88	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.67	1.62	55%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Away Win	1.98	1.93	45%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.56	2.50	34%	Cashed	+1.56	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.66	2.80	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.50	3.75	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.48	1.50	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.29	1.29	70%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	1.56	56%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.51	1.46	45%	Cashed	+0.51	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.38	4.50	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	14.93	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.80	3.83	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.19	1.20	78%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.21u	−25% ROI

Malaga vs Villarreal 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled