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Home › Spain › La Liga › Celta Vigo — Malaga

Celta Vigo vs Malaga 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
Home · last 5 L D D D W
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sep · 12:00
1:1
Full-time
Malaga
Malaga
D D L L D Away · last 5
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 63% · book 1.80 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 62% · book 1.80 ✗
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 51% · book 2.03 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.80 — +12.7% better than the market.

Celta Vigo hosts Malaga in a La Liga clash where both sides show recent struggles, but Malaga's slightly better form and marginally higher scoring threat hint at a tight contest. The home side's lack of offensive firepower contrasts with Malaga's ability to create chances, suggesting a cautious game with limited goals.

  • Low scoring trend favors under 2.5 goals
  • Malaga's pressing could exploit Celta's defensive lapses
  • Home side's compact block may limit space but lacks attacking edge

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed
AI 63% Implied 56% +0.80u
+80%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CEL 3-4-3 · MAL 4-4-2
Subs used · CEL
62' Swedberg ↑ · González ↓
74' Burcio ↑ · Moriba ↓
74' Driouech ↑ · Antunez ↓
84' Galán ↑ · García ↓
84' Aspas ↑ · Jutglà ↓
Subs used · MAL
45' Enríquez ↑ · Galilea ↓
61' Cruz ↑ · Muñoz ↓
67' Puga ↑ · Lorenzo ↓
67' Nino ↑ · Merino ↓
87' Berrocal ↑ · Salinas ↓

Statistics

CEL 1 – 1 MAL
46%
Possession (%)
54%
17
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
2
8
Shots off Target
7
8
Shots Inside Box
6
1
Corner Kicks
5
6
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

14 · 1 – 1
24'
▮
Einar Galilea
Yellow Card
Yoel Lago
Yellow Card
▮
26'
Ferran Jutglà
Assist · Hugo González · 1–0
⚽
41'
45'
⇄
Ramón Enríquez ↓ · Einar Galilea ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 1 – 0
61'
⇄
Juan Cruz ↓ · Joaquín Muñoz ↑
Substitution 2
Williot Swedberg ↓ · Hugo González ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
62'
67'
⇄
Carlos Puga ↓ · Dani Lorenzo ↑
Substitution 3
67'
⇄
Adrian Nino ↓ · Izan Merino ↑
Substitution 4
Hugo Burcio ↓ · Ilaix Moriba ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
Couhaib Driouech ↓ · Hugo Alvarez Antunez ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
83'
⚽
Adrian Nino
Assist · Pablo Martínez Andrés · 1–1
Javi Galán ↓ · Javier Rueda García ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
Iago Aspas ↓ · Ferran Jutglà ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
87'
⇄
Juan Berrocal ↓ · José Salinas ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Celta Vigo and Malaga drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 12, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: Ferran Jutglà (41'), Adrian Nino (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.85 units (Brier 0.174).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.80 1.75 63% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
BTTS No 1.80 1.82 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.03 2.10 51% Cashed +1.03 Cashed
Home Win 1.74 1.70 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.00 2.10 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.94 1.93 38% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 9.01 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.30 3.30 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.75 5.13 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.26 1.26 84% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.18 1.18 75% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Draw 3.60 3.65 25% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.40 3.58 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.03 80% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.31 1.31 62% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.29 1.25 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.60 3.60 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.85u −17% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
CEL – MAL @ 1.80
+12.7%
Edge
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