Alaves vs Villarreal 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.67 — +11.4% better than the market.

Alaves enter this La Liga clash with a slight home momentum, showing signs of sharper form compared to Villarreal's recent draws. The home side's ability to capitalize on set-pieces and maintain defensive solidity could challenge Villarreal's attack, which has struggled to convert chances consistently. Expect a competitive match with a moderate tempo, where Alaves' pressing edge and home comfort might tilt the balance.

Alaves' recent wins suggest growing confidence at home
Villarreal's draws hint at a compact but less clinical approach
Moderate pace likely, favoring structured play over frantic pressing

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.67 ✗ Lost

AI 67% Implied 60% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ALA 5-3-2 · VIL 4-4-2

ALA · 5-3-2 4-4-2 · VIL

8 Blanco

18 Rodriguez

15 Boyé ⚽

Subs used · ALA

54'

Diaz ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

54'

Yusi ↑ ·

Rodriguez ↓

71'

Suarez ↑ ·

Rebbach ↓

71'

Protesoni ↑ ·

Perez ↓

82'

Manas ↑ ·

Boye ↓

Subs used · VIL

62'

Perez ↑ ·

Comesana ↓

62'

Freeman ↑ ·

Mourino ↓

63'

Moleiro ↑ ·

Buchanan ↓

70'

Akhomach ↑ ·

Moreno ↓

82'

Oluwaseyi ↑ ·

Mikautadze ↓

Statistics

ALA 1 – 0 VIL

25%

Possession (%)

75%

0.81

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.28

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

74%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 1 – 0

L. Boye

Assist · A. Perez · 1–0

⚽

31'

Q. Sanchez Flores

Yellow Card

▮

45+2'

Half-time · 1 – 0

A. Rebbach

Yellow Card

▮

48'

M. Diaz ↓ · T. Martinez ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

54'

Yusi ↓ · M. Rodriguez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

54'

62'

⇄

A. Perez ↓ · S. Comesana ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

A. Freeman ↓ · S. Mourino ↑

Substitution 2

63'

⇄

A. Moleiro ↓ · T. Buchanan ↑

Substitution 3

70'

⇄

I. Akhomach ↓ · G. Moreno ↑

Substitution 4

D. Suarez ↓ · A. Rebbach ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

C. Protesoni ↓ · A. Perez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

71'

A. Manas ↓ · L. Boye ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

⇄

T. Oluwaseyi ↓ · G. Mikautadze ↑

Substitution 5

86'

▮

N. Pepe

Yellow Card

M. Diaz

Yellow Card

▮

89'

A. Sivera

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

▮

R. Veiga

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Alaves beat Villarreal 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 75% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 9, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Boye (31').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.52 units (Brier 0.314).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.80	1.80	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	1.65	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.65	1.62	61%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Away Win	2.28	2.25	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.28	2.30	35%	Cashed	+1.28	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.00	2.00	36%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS No	2.15	2.16	33%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.67	1.66	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.00	2.92	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.05	3.15	35%	Cashed	+2.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	1.24	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.36	1.36	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.03	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	3.56	3.45	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	1.36	55%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	4.00	15%	Cashed	+3.00	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.00	10.99	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.52u	+3% ROI

Alaves vs Villarreal 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled