Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano 5:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.86 — +14.2% better than the market.

Barcelona enters this La Liga clash with clear home momentum after a recent win, while Rayo Vallecano struggles to find consistency. The Camp Nou advantage and Barcelona's sharper form suggest they will control the tempo, likely pressing high and exploiting set-piece opportunities. Rayo's defensive resilience will be tested against Barcelona's creative attack, hinting at a lively encounter with multiple goal chances.

Home edge in form and venue
Barcelona's attacking pressure vs Rayo's defense
Potential for open, goal-rich play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.86 ✓ Cashed

AI 62% Implied 54% +0.86u

+86%

ROI on stake

Lineups

BAR 4-2-3-1 · RAY 4-3-3

BAR · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · RAY

11 Raphinha ⚽

Subs used · BAR

64'

Fermin ↑ ·

Olmo ↓

64'

Rodri ↑ ·

Bernal ↓

77'

Cancelo ↑ ·

Pedri ↓

77'

Adeyemi ↑ ·

Gordon ↓

86'

Abdelkarim ↑ ·

Raphinha ↓

Subs used · RAY

32'

Pedrosa ↑ ·

Vertrouwd ↓

57'

Diaz ↑ ·

Bouare ↓

57'

Perez ↑ ·

de Frutos ↓

75'

Alemao ↑ ·

Camello ↓

75'

Nteka ↑ ·

Lopez ↓

Statistics

BAR 5 – 2 RAY

69%

Possession (%)

31%

2.83

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 5 – 2

12'

⚽

S. Camello

Assist · A. Garcia · 0–1

Raphinha

Assist · X. Espart · 1–1

⚽

19'

Lamine Yamal

Assist · M. Bernal · 2–1

⚽

21'

32'

⇄

A. Pedrosa ↓ · J. Vertrouwd ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 2 – 1

F. Lejeune

Own goal · 3–1

⚽

51'

57'

⇄

P. Diaz ↓ · G. Bouare ↑

Substitution 2

57'

⇄

F. Perez ↓ · J. de Frutos ↑

Substitution 3

59'

⚽

S. Camello

Assist · U. Lopez · 3–2

Fermin ↓ · D. Olmo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

64'

Rodri ↓ · M. Bernal ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

Raphinha

Assist · A. Gordon · 4–2

⚽

71'

75'

⇄

Alemao ↓ · S. Camello ↑

Substitution 4

75'

⇄

R. Nteka ↓ · U. Lopez ↑

Substitution 5

J. Cancelo ↓ · Pedri ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

K. Adeyemi ↓ · A. Gordon ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

H. Abdelkarim ↓ · Raphinha ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

90'

▮

A. Pedrosa

Yellow Card

Lamine Yamal

Assist · K. Adeyemi · 5–2

⚽

90'

Full-time · 5 – 2

Match recap

Barcelona beat Rayo Vallecano 5–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.83 to 1.08. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 26 shots to 11, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 2.83 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: S. Camello (12'), Raphinha (19'), Lamine Yamal (21'), F. Lejeune (51'), S. Camello (59'), Raphinha (71'), Lamine Yamal (90').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.74 units (Brier 0.060).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	1.80	1.53	65%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.86	1.95	62%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Under 3.5	2.10	2.44	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.86	1.79	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.20	4.50	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	13.00	23.26	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.30	1.20	82%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Double Chance X2	5.50	7.41	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	13.50	16.95	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	9.25	10.99	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.04	1.01	85%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Home Win	1.12	1.09	77%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.04	1.02	68%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.10	1.01	92%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 1.5	9.20	10.99	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−5.74u	−38% ROI

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano 5:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled