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Home › England › Premier League › Liverpool — Manchester City

Predictions by Market: Liverpool vs Manchester City

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Liverpool
Liverpool
Home · last 5 D D W D W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 15:30
—:—
Pre-match · scheduled
Manchester City
Manchester City
W W W W W Away · last 5
Anfield · Liverpool Referee Chris Kavanagh

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LIV
25%
Best 3.04
Draw
25%
Best 3.90
Away Win · MCI
46%
Best 2.36
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.38
Fair odds
2.09
book 2.38 · +13.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 48% · EV +13.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (52%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 46.2%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win
Probability 24.6%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 33.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 24.7%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 69%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 47.9%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 31%
Odds 2.44
Show model details
Implied probability 41.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 24.5%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 52.1%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 7.1%
Odds 17.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.9%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 75.5%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 44.4%
Odds 2.52
Show model details
Implied probability 39.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 55.7%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 58%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 24.6%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 70.9%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 53.8%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 66%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
LIV – MCI @ 2.38
+13.9%
Edge
Forecast →