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Home › England › Premier League › Leeds — Newcastle

Leeds vs Newcastle 4:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Leeds
Leeds
Home · last 5 D D W D L
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep · 19:00
4:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
D W D L W Away · last 5
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 52% · book 2.13 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 47% · book 2.20 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 59% · book 1.62 ✗
Total goals
5
4 · 1
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.09 — +13.1% better than the market.

Leeds and Newcastle face off in a tight Premier League clash where recent form and balanced scoring suggest a cautious encounter. Both sides show similar points per game recently, hinting at a competitive match with limited clear dominance. Leeds' home momentum and Newcastle's slight edge in recent form could lead to a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances.

  • Leeds' home resilience may keep the game tight
  • Newcastle's slightly better recent form adds pressure
  • Odds and past meetings suggest a moderate goal pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.09 ✗ Lost
AI 28% Implied 24% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEE 3-5-2 · NEW 4-2-3-1
LEE · 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 · NEW 1 Trafford 24 Justin 30 Elvedi 5 Muharemović 2 Bogle ⚽ 18 Stach 4 Ampadu 22 Tanaka 3 Gudmundsson 9 Calvert-Lewin ⚽ 19 Okafor ⚽ 21 Horníček 37 Dedić 12 Thiaw 4 Botman 3 Hall 6 González 67 Miley 23 Murphy 20 Fernandez-Pardo 11 Barnes 9 Wissa
Subs used · LEE
72' Wilson ↑ · Okafor ↓
72' Aaronson ↑ · Tanaka ↓
72' Bard ↑ · Gudmundsson ↓
78' Nmecha ↑ · Calvert-Lewin ↓
83' James ↑ · Bogle ↓
88' Longstaff ↑ · Stach ↓
Subs used · NEW
19' Steur ↑ · González ↓
57' Touré ↑ · Murphy ↓
57' Willock ↑ · Fernandez-Pardo ↓
58' Livramento ↑ · Dedić ↓
80' Bamba ↑ · Miley ↓

Statistics

LEE 4 – 1 NEW
51%
Possession (%)
49%
15
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Target
5
4
Shots off Target
2
10
Shots Inside Box
4
5
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
3
8
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

19 · 4 – 1
19'
⇄
Sean Steur ↓ · Nico González ↑
Substitution 1
Lewis Miley
Own goal · 1–0
⚽
32'
Jayden Bogle
Assist · Dominic Calvert-Lewin · 2–0
⚽
34'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Yellow Card
▮
44'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Assist · Tarik Muharemovic · 3–0
⚽
45+1'
Half-time · 3 – 0
54'
▮
Jacob Murphy
Yellow Card
57'
⇄
Bazoumana Touré ↓ · Jacob Murphy ↑
Substitution 2
57'
⇄
Joe Willock ↓ · Matias Fernandez-Pardo ↑
Substitution 3
58'
⇄
Valentino Livramento ↓ · Amar Dedić ↑
Substitution 4
Noah Okafor
4–0
⚽
59'
Harry Wilson ↓ · Noah Okafor ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
72'
Brenden Aaronson ↓ · Ao Tanaka ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
72'
Melvin Bard ↓ · Gabriel Gudmundsson ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
72'
Lukas Nmecha ↓ · Dominic Calvert-Lewin ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
78'
80'
⇄
Aladji Bamba ↓ · Lewis Miley ↑
Substitution 5
Daniel James ↓ · Jayden Bogle ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
83'
Sean Longstaff ↓ · Anton Stach ↑
Substitution 6
⇄
88'
90'
⚽
Bazoumana Touré
4–1
90+1'
▮
Valentino Livramento
Yellow Card
Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Leeds beat Newcastle 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 7, 6 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Lewis Miley (32'), Jayden Bogle (34'), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (45+1'), Noah Okafor (59'), Bazoumana Touré (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.22 units (Brier 0.215).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.13 2.10 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.20 2.22 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.62 1.64 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.30 2.25 41% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.62 1.61 53% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.77 1.73 48% Cashed +0.77 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.74 2.75 27% Cashed +1.74 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.23 2.27 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.70 1.67 41% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.40 1.36 67% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.09 4.20 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.42 1.41 73% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.90 3.15 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 13.25 12.99 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.02 92% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 3.40 3.45 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 1.22 72% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.22u −19% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
LEE – NEW @ 4.09
+13.1%
Edge
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