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Home › England › Premier League › Leeds — Newcastle

Predictions by Market: Leeds vs Newcastle

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Leeds
Leeds
Home · last 5 D D W D L
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep · 19:00
4:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
D W D L W Away · last 5

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LEE
41%
Best 2.36
Draw
26%
Best 3.58
Away Win · NEW
33%
Best 3.21
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.09
Fair odds
3.61
book 4.09 · +13.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 28% · EV +13.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (72%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 41%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 32.8%
Odds 2.90
Show model details
Implied probability 34.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 26.2%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 52.2%
Odds 2.13
Show model details
Implied probability 47.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 47.8%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 27.3%
Odds 2.74
Show model details
Implied probability 36.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 27.7%
Odds 4.09
Show model details
Implied probability 24.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 72.7%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.3%
Odds 13.25
Show model details
Implied probability 7.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.7%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 72.3%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 47.4%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.6%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 32.8%
Odds 2.23
Show model details
Implied probability 44.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 41%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 59%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 67.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
LEE – NEW @ 4.09
+13.1%
Edge
Forecast →