Match USA vs Belgium July 7, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.73 — +14.7% better than the market.

USA faces Belgium in a neutral World Cup clash where Belgium's strong qualifying form and attacking prowess stand out. Belgium's high scoring rate and solid defense give them a clear edge, while USA's lack of recent data adds uncertainty. Expect a lively game with a good chance of goals given Belgium's offensive momentum and the match's neutral setting.

Belgium's sharp attack vs USA's unknown defense
Neutral venue reduces home advantage
High probability of over 2.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.73 ✓ Cashed

AI 66% Implied 58% +0.73u

+73%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

USA 4-3-3 · BEL 4-2-3-1

USA · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · BEL

10 Pulišić

Subs used · USA

46'

Reyna ↑ ·

Dest ↓

59'

Berhalter ↑ ·

Pulisic ↓

72'

Pepi ↑ ·

Adams ↓

90+2'

Wright ↑ ·

Balogun ↓

90+2'

Arfsten ↑ ·

Robinson ↓

Subs used · BEL

21'

Vanaken ↑ ·

Onana ↓

67'

Doku ↑ ·

Lukebakio ↓

67'

Lukaku ↑ ·

De Ketelaere ↓

89'

Saelemaekers ↑ ·

Trossard ↓

89'

Witsel ↑ ·

Raskin ↓

📊 Statistics

USA 1 – 4 BEL

56%

Possession (%)

44%

0.67

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.15

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 4

⚽

C. De Ketelaere

Assist · N. Raskin · 0–1

21'

⇄

H. Vanaken ↓ · A. Onana ↑

Substitution 1

M. Tillman

1–1

⚽

31'

33'

⚽

C. De Ketelaere

Assist · L. Trossard · 1–2

W. McKennie

Yellow Card

▮

35'

Half-time · 1 – 2

G. Reyna ↓ · S. Dest ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

57'

⚽

H. Vanaken

Assist · C. De Ketelaere · 1–3

S. Berhalter ↓ · C. Pulisic ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

67'

⇄

J. Doku ↓ · D. Lukebakio ↑

Substitution 2

67'

⇄

R. Lukaku ↓ · C. De Ketelaere ↑

Substitution 3

M. Tillman

Yellow Card

▮

69'

R. Pepi ↓ · T. Adams ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

89'

⇄

A. Saelemaekers ↓ · L. Trossard ↑

Substitution 4

89'

⇄

A. Witsel ↓ · N. Raskin ↑

Substitution 5

H. Wright ↓ · F. Balogun ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+2'

M. Arfsten ↓ · A. Robinson ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+2'

90+3'

⚽

R. Lukaku

Assist · H. Vanaken · 1–4

Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Belgium won 4–1 away at USA. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.15 to 0.67. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 7, 7 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.15 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: C. De Ketelaere (9'), M. Tillman (31'), C. De Ketelaere (33'), H. Vanaken (57'), R. Lukaku (90+3').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.72 units (Brier 0.184).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.73	1.67	66%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.75	2.50	47%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
Home Win	2.78	2.53	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.58	2.78	36%	Cashed	+1.58	Cashed
BTTS No	2.26	2.39	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.96	1.83	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	2.25	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.90	2.02	36%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.47	1.42	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.53	1.53	61%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.59	1.55	65%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.40	1.46	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	1.18	86%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Draw	3.30	3.40	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.20	4.50	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−1.72u	−11% ROI

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample

@Donald Mrcvichka

ROI +5.1%

1 month ago

World Cup Tu 7 Jul · 00:00

USA

1 : 4 final

Belgium

Asian Handicap Home -1.5 @ 4.65

Stake 191 coins

→

Payout 0 lost

P/L -191 -100% vs stake

✕ Lost