Aston Villa vs Wolves 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.86 — +11.7% better than the market.

Aston Villa carry strong home momentum into this clash at Villa Park, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Wolves. Their defensive solidity combined with a potent attack against Wolves' leaky backline suggests Villa can control the tempo and limit chances. Wolves’ struggles on the road and poor form hint at a tough outing, with Villa’s pressing and set-piece threat likely to be decisive.

Home defensive resilience vs away offensive struggles
Villa’s recent winning streak and home comfort
Wolves’ low confidence and away woes

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.86 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 54% +0.86u

+86%

ROI on stake

Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · WOL 3-4-3

AST · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · WOL

17 Malen

Subs used · AST

54'

Watkins ↑ ·

Buendia ↓

75'

Barkley ↑ ·

Tielemans ↓

75'

Onana ↑ ·

Malen ↓

88'

Bogarde ↑ ·

Kamara ↓

88'

Sancho ↑

Subs used · WOL

69'

Chirewa ↑ ·

Bellegarde ↓

77'

Bueno ↑ ·

M. Wolfe ↓

77'

Mane ↑ ·

Mosquera ↓

87'

Arokodare ↑ ·

Arias ↓

Statistics

AST 1 – 0 WOL

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.00

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.49

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

14 · 1 – 0

45+2'

▮

André

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

O. Watkins ↓ · E. Buendia ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

54'

58'

▮

David Möller Wolfe

Yellow Card

B. Kamara

Assist · J. McGinn · 1–0

⚽

67'

69'

⇄

T. Chirewa ↓ · J. Bellegarde ↑

Substitution 1

R. Barkley ↓ · Y. Tielemans ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

75'

A. Onana ↓ · D. Malen ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

76'

▮

Yerson Mosquera

Yellow Card

77'

⇄

H. Bueno ↓ · D. M. Wolfe ↑

Substitution 2

77'

⇄

M. Mane ↓ · Y. Mosquera ↑

Substitution 3

80'

▮

Jhon Arias

Yellow Card

87'

⇄

T. Arokodare ↓ · J. Arias ↑

Substitution 4

L. Bogarde ↓ · B. Kamara ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

J. Sancho ↓ ·

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Aston Villa beat Wolves 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.00 to 0.49. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: B. Kamara (67').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.41 units (Brier 0.121).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.07	—	58%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
BTTS No	1.86	—	60%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.79	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.88	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.39	—	80%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Home Win	1.53	—	69%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.35	—	33%	Cashed	+3.35	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	89%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.19	—	69%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.20	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.77	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	88%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	7.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.22	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.41u	−14% ROI

Aston Villa vs Wolves 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled