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Home World World Cup Brazil — Japan

Predictions Brazil vs Japan June 29, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

World   /   World Cup Value pick inside
Brazil
Brazil
Home · last 5 D W W W L
Kick-off
Mon 29 Jun · 17:00
2:1
Full-time
Japan
Japan
D W D L Away · last 5
Referee Maurizio Mariani, Italy
Home Win · BRA
53%
Best 1.83
Draw
25%
Best 3.65
Away Win · JPN
22%
Best 5.14
Value pick
Away Win
@ 5.13
Fair odds
4.48
book 5.13 · +14.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 22% · EV +14.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (53%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 53.2%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 22.3%
Odds 5.13
Show model details
Implied probability 19.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 24.5%
Odds 3.83
Show model details
Implied probability 26.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5 Value pick
Probability 57.8%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 42.2%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 36.7%
Odds 3.48
Show model details
Implied probability 28.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 79.5%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.6%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 63.3%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 20.5%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 6.4%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Value pick
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality High
BTTS No
Probability 43.1%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 22.3%
Odds 3.71
Show model details
Implied probability 27%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 53.2%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 46.8%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 85.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
BRA – JPN @ 5.13
+14.5%
Edge
Forecast →