Match Brazil vs Japan June 29, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 5.13 — +14.5% better than the market.

Brazil faces a tough challenge against Japan in this World Cup clash. Brazil's home momentum is tempered by a mixed recent form and a modest scoring rate, while Japan impresses with a solid defense and prolific attack in qualifiers. The match hints at a balanced tactical battle with Japan's compact block and efficient counterattack testing Brazil's creativity.

Brazil's moderate home edge meets Japan's disciplined defense.
Japan's high scoring rate contrasts with Brazil's tighter defense.
Expect a lively tempo with chances for both sides.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 5.13 ✗ Lost

AI 22% Implied 20% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BRA 4-3-3 · JPN 3-4-2-1

BRA · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · JPN

7 Júnior

Subs used · BRA

46'

Endrick ↑ ·

Paqueta ↓

66'

Martinelli ↑ ·

Cunha ↓

90+3'

Fabinho ↑ ·

Casemiro ↓

90+8'

Santos ↑ ·

Guimaraes ↓

Subs used · JPN

66'

Sugawara ↑ ·

Doan ↓

66'

Suzuki ↑ ·

Nakamura ↓

78'

Tanaka ↑ ·

Kamada ↓

78'

Machino ↑ ·

Ito ↓

90+7'

Ogawa ↑ ·

Maeda ↓

📊 Statistics

BRA 2 – 1 JPN

69%

Possession (%)

31%

1.69

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.23

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

92%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 2 – 1

12'

▮

K. Sano

Yellow Card

Casemiro

Yellow Card

▮

14'

29'

⚽

K. Sano

0–1

45'

▮

D. Kamada

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 1

Endrick ↓ · Lucas Paqueta ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Danilo

Yellow Card

▮

48'

Casemiro

Assist · Gabriel · 1–1

⚽

56'

G. Martinelli ↓ · M. Cunha ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

⇄

Y. Sugawara ↓ · R. Doan ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⇄

J. Suzuki ↓ · K. Nakamura ↑

Substitution 2

78'

⇄

A. Tanaka ↓ · D. Kamada ↑

Substitution 3

78'

⇄

S. Machino ↓ · J. Ito ↑

Substitution 4

84'

▮

J. Suzuki

Yellow Card

Fabinho ↓ · Casemiro ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+3'

G. Martinelli

Assist · Bruno Guimaraes · 2–1

⚽

90+5'

90+7'

⇄

K. Ogawa ↓ · D. Maeda ↑

Substitution 5

Danilo Santos ↓ · Bruno Guimaraes ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+8'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Brazil beat Japan 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.69 to 0.23. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 5, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Sano (29'), Casemiro (56'), G. Martinelli (90+5').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.35 units (Brier 0.115).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.00	2.15	58%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.92	1.95	57%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.10	2.05	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.70	1.75	53%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS No	1.84	1.80	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.83	1.70	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.48	4.00	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.13	5.00	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.18	1.18	78%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	1.37	79%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	1.07	94%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	3.83	3.60	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.71	3.53	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	1.25	63%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.40	3.00	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.24	1.28	53%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	8.47	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.35u	−31% ROI