Match New Zealand vs Belgium June 27, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.62 — +11.3% better than the market.

New Zealand arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a flawless recent run and a sturdy defense that has conceded just once in five qualifiers. Their attacking prowess is notable, averaging nearly six goals per game, suggesting they can challenge Belgium's backline.

Belgium's solid UEFA form shows resilience and attacking depth.
Neutral venue may temper New Zealand's home edge but their confidence is high.
Expect a tactical battle with moderate pace and under 3.5 goals likely.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.62

AI 69% Implied 62% Value

+11.3%

Expected value

⛀ Lineups

NZL 4-2-3-1 · BEL 4-2-3-1

NZL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BEL

9 Wood

Subs used · NZL

46'

Randall ↑ ·

Singh ↓

46'

Old ↑ ·

Thomas ↓

64'

Boxall ↑ ·

Payne ↓

64'

McCowatt ↑ ·

Bell ↓

79'

De Vries ↑ ·

Cacace ↓

Subs used · BEL

56'

Fernandez-Pardo ↑ ·

Doku ↓

72'

Saelemaekers ↑ ·

Trossard ↓

72'

Onana ↑ ·

De Bruyne ↓

85'

Lukaku ↑ ·

De Ketelaere ↓

85'

Raskin ↑ ·

Tielemans ↓

📊 Statistics

NZL 1 – 5 BEL

45%

Possession (%)

55%

0.24

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.60

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 1 – 5

28'

⚽

L. Trossard

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

J. Randall ↓ · S. Singh ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

B. Old ↓ · R. Thomas ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

M. Stamenic

Yellow Card

▮

46'

50'

⚽

L. Trossard

Assist · H. Vanaken · 0–2

E. Just

Yellow Card

▮

56'

⇄

M. Fernandez-Pardo ↓ · J. Doku ↑

Substitution 1

M. Boxall ↓ · T. Payne ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

64'

C. McCowatt ↓ · J. Bell ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

64'

66'

⚽

K. De Bruyne

0–3

72'

⇄

A. Saelemaekers ↓ · L. Trossard ↑

Substitution 2

72'

⇄

A. Onana ↓ · K. De Bruyne ↑

Substitution 3

F. De Vries ↓ · L. Cacace ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

E. Just

1–3

⚽

84'

85'

⇄

R. Lukaku ↓ · C. De Ketelaere ↑

Substitution 4

85'

⇄

N. Raskin ↓ · Y. Tielemans ↑

Substitution 5

86'

⚽

R. Lukaku

Assist · N. Raskin · 1–4

90+4'

⚽

A. Saelemaekers

Assist · R. Lukaku · 1–5

Full-time · 1 – 5

Match recap

Belgium won 5–1 away at New Zealand. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.60 to 0.24. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 35 shots to 6, 10 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: L. Trossard (28'), L. Trossard (50'), K. De Bruyne (66'), E. Just (84'), R. Lukaku (86'), A. Saelemaekers (90+4').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.41 units (Brier 0.150).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.80	2.15	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.00	3.85	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.88	1.73	42%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.05	1.67	37%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Home Win	15.00	12.99	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	13.00	12.50	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	7.40	8.47	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	4.63	4.63	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	7.43	7.63	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.89	2.07	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.03	1.04	86%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Away Win	1.18	1.19	71%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.36	1.23	59%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.03	1.03	71%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.06	1.05	77%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−5.41u	−36% ROI

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample

@Ziroch Kapalay

ROI +15.0%

2 weeks ago

World Cup Sa 27 Jun · 03:00

New Zealand

1 : 5 final

Belgium

First Half Winner Away @ 1.50

Stake 154 coins

→

Payout 231 credited

P/L +77 +50% vs stake

✓ Won