Match Uruguay vs Spain June 27, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.87 — +9.7% better than the market.

Spain arrives with strong momentum, boasting a potent attack and solid defensive record in qualifiers. Their high scoring rate and pressing edge could challenge Uruguay's compact block, which has shown resilience but less firepower. The neutral venue levels the playing field, but Spain's sharper form and attacking threat suggest a lively contest with multiple goals likely.

Spain's clinical offense vs Uruguay's disciplined defense
Neutral ground reduces home advantage
Recent form favors Spain's confidence and rhythm

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.87

AI 59% Implied 53% Value

+9.7%

Expected value

⛀ Lineups

URU 4-2-3-1 · SPA 4-3-3

URU · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · SPA

9 Núñez

Subs used · URU

45'

de la Cruz ↑ ·

Ugarte ↓

46'

Rochet ↑ ·

Muslera ↓

57'

Vinas ↑ ·

Valverde ↓

70'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Sanabria ↓

Subs used · SPA

60'

Ruiz ↑ ·

Pedri ↓

60'

Olmo ↑ ·

Merino ↓

66'

Pino ↑ ·

Baena ↓

76'

Williams ↑ ·

Yamal ↓

76'

Torres ↑ ·

Oyarzabal ↓

📊 Statistics

URU 0 – 1 SPA

33%

Possession (%)

67%

0.20

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.86

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 1

42'

⚽

A. Baena

Assist · M. Llorente · 0–1

N. de la Cruz ↓ · M. Ugarte ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Half-time · 0 – 1

S. Rochet ↓ · F. Muslera ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

▮

A. Baena

Yellow Card

J. Sanabria

Yellow Card

▮

54'

F. Vinas ↓ · F. Valverde ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

57'

G. Varela

Yellow Card

▮

58'

60'

⇄

F. Ruiz ↓ · Pedri ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

D. Olmo ↓ · M. Merino ↑

Substitution 2

66'

⇄

Y. Pino ↓ · A. Baena ↑

Substitution 3

B. Rodriguez ↓ · J. Sanabria ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

70'

76'

⇄

N. Williams ↓ · Lamine Yamal ↑

Substitution 4

76'

⇄

F. Torres ↓ · M. Oyarzabal ↑

Substitution 5

N. de la Cruz

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

A. Canobbio

Red Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Spain won 1–0 away at Uruguay. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 0.86 to 0.20. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Baena (42'). A. Canobbio was sent off in the 90+5' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.32 units (Brier 0.208).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.19	2.38	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.13	2.12	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.23	2.23	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.64	1.63	48%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.67	1.61	46%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.00	4.41	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	7.00	5.88	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	4.03	4.03	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.09	1.13	78%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Away Win	1.70	1.70	49%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.36	1.40	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.06	94%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	4.10	3.45	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.23	1.18	66%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.10	2.80	23%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	8.00	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.23	1.23	49%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.32u	−25% ROI