Spain vs Saudi Arabia 4:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.91 — +14.6% better than the market.

Spain enters this World Cup clash with strong home momentum, boasting a potent attack and a rock-solid defense that conceded just two goals in qualifiers. Their high pressing and set-piece threat contrast with Saudi Arabia's more modest scoring and defensive record. Saudi Arabia's resilience and occasional counter-attacks could test Spain's compact block, but the home side's superior form and offensive edge suggest control of the match tempo.

Spain's clinical finishing and defensive discipline
Saudi Arabia's counter-attacking potential
Likely moderate pace with tactical probing

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.91 ✗ Lost

AI 60% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ESP 4-2-3-1 · KSA 5-3-2

ESP · 4-2-3-1 5-3-2 · KSA

21 Oyarzabal ⚽

Subs used · ESP

46'

Pino ↑ ·

Yamal ↓

46'

Torres ↑ ·

Oyarzabal ↓

61'

Merino ↑ ·

Olmo ↓

61'

Williams ↑ ·

Baena ↓

70'

Ruiz ↑ ·

Pedri ↓

Subs used · KSA

46'

Kanno ↑ ·

Al Khaibari ↓

46'

Al Hamdan ↑ ·

Al Juwayr ↓

60'

Hejji ↑ ·

Al Amri ↓

60'

Abu Al Shamat ↑ ·

Al Buraikan ↓

90'

Al Ghannam ↑ ·

Al Dawsari ↓

Statistics

ESP 4 – 0 KSA

67%

Possession (%)

33%

2.85

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.14

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

92%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

16 · 4 – 0

Lamine Yamal

Assist · M. Oyarzabal · 1–0

⚽

10'

M. Oyarzabal

Assist · A. Laporte · 2–0

⚽

21'

M. Oyarzabal

Assist · D. Olmo · 3–0

⚽

24'

30'

▮

S. Al Dawsari

Yellow Card

Half-time · 3 – 0

Y. Pino ↓ · Lamine Yamal ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

F. Torres ↓ · M. Oyarzabal ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

⇄

M. Kanno ↓ · A. Al Khaibari ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

A. Al Hamdan ↓ · M. Al Juwayr ↑

Substitution 2

H. Tambakti

Own goal · 4–0

⚽

49'

60'

▮

M. Kanno

Yellow Card

60'

⇄

A. Hejji ↓ · A. Al Amri ↑

Substitution 3

60'

⇄

M. Abu Al Shamat ↓ · F. Al Buraikan ↑

Substitution 4

M. Merino ↓ · D. Olmo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

N. Williams ↓ · A. Baena ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

61'

F. Ruiz ↓ · Pedri ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

70'

90'

⇄

K. Al Ghannam ↓ · N. Al Dawsari ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.85 to 0.14. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 3, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: Lamine Yamal (10'), M. Oyarzabal (21'), M. Oyarzabal (24'), H. Tambakti (49').

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 5 landed and 8 missed, for a net -6.05 units (Brier 0.118).

Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 5 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.91	1.91	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.10	3.10	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.91	1.91	40%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Away Win	26.00	26.32	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	7.00	6.99	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	15.00	14.93	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	10.50	10.87	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.50	6.49	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.89	2.78	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.10	1.10	77%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.44	1.35	56%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
BTTS No	1.39	1.42	67%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.11	1.07	78%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 8 L	−6.05u	−47% ROI