Match TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz May 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.00 — +14.5% better than the market.

Sturm Graz carry a clear quality edge into this clash, with a stronger attack likely to challenge Hartberg's defense. The home side's recent form shows some resilience, but Sturm's consistent draws hint at a compact, disciplined approach. Expect a tactical battle where Sturm's offensive pressure meets Hartberg's home momentum.

Sturm's attacking threat vs Hartberg's defense
Home side's slight form momentum
Moderate pace suggested by odds favors a controlled game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.00 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HAR 5-3-2 · STU 3-1-4-2

HAR · 5-3-2 3-1-4-2 · STU

30 Fridrikas

📊 Statistics

HAR 2 – 4 STU

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.30

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.37

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sturm Graz won 4–2 away at TSV Hartberg. At half-time it was 1–3.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 26 shots to 13, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 2. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.37 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.88 units (Brier 0.221).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.00	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.10	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.90	—	58%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.75	—	46%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.91	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.80	—	43%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.71	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.62	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.25	—	82%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.33	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.85	—	23%	Cashed	+1.85	Cashed
Draw	3.62	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.21	—	68%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.36	—	58%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Home Win	4.00	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−2.88u	−19% ROI