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Home › Spain › La Liga › Alaves — Rayo Vallecano

Predictions by Market: Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Alaves
Alaves
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
1:2
Full-time
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
W D D W W Away · last 5
Estadio de Mendizorroza · Victoria-Gasteiz Referee J. Manzano

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ALA
46%
Best 2.41
Draw
26%
Best 3.48
Away Win · RAY
28%
Best 3.20
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.50
Fair odds
3.23
book 3.50 · +8.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 31% · EV +8.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (69%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 46.2%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 28%
Odds 3.11
Show model details
Implied probability 32.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 25.9%
Odds 3.44
Show model details
Implied probability 29.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.03
Show model details
Implied probability 49.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 30.9%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 10.4%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 76.7%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.6%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 69.1%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 23.4%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 50.7%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 49.3%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 46.2%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 28%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 53.8%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 72%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALA – RAY @ 3.50
+8.3%
Edge
Forecast →