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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Alaves — Rayo Vallecano
Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Alaves
Alaves
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
1:0
Live · 45'
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
D W D D W Away · last 5
Estadio Mendizorrotza · Vitoria-Gasteiz Referee J. Manzano
Home Win · ALA
46%
Best 2.41
Draw
26%
Best 3.48
Away Win · RAY
28%
Best 3.20
Best bet
Under 2.5
@ 1.91
Fair odds
1.77
book 1.91 · +7.7% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
Medium
p 56% · EV +7.7%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.91 — +7.7% better than the market.

Alaves carry a slight edge at home with a compact defensive block that has limited Rayo Vallecano's attacking threat in recent encounters. Their recent form shows stronger momentum, and a modest home advantage suggests a controlled pace.

  • Alaves' defensive solidity contrasts with Rayo's less effective defense.
  • Home form favors Alaves' confidence and pressing intensity.
  • Historical results hint at a tight, low-scoring affair.

Expect a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances, favoring a match under 2.5 goals as both sides prioritize structure over risk.

Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.91
AI 56% Implied 52% Value
+7.7%
Expected value
Why we like it. Line shortened by 3.2 pp toward our pick across the snapshot window.

Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
Under 1.5 3.50 3.40 31% +8.3% Watch
Under 2.5 1.91 1.80 56% +7.7% Top pick
BTTS No 2.10 2.00 51% +6.5% Watch
Under 0.5 10.00 9.00 10% +4.0% Watch
Double Chance 1X 1.42 1.36 72% +2.3% Watch
Under 3.5 1.30 1.29 77% −0.4% Pass
Over 0.5 1.06 1.05 90% −5.0% Pass
Over 1.5 1.33 1.30 69% −8.2% Pass
Draw 3.44 3.35 26% −11.1% Pass
Over 2.5 2.03 2.00 44% −11.4% Pass
Away Win 3.11 3.10 28% −13.0% Pass
Double Chance X2 1.61 1.61 54% −13.4% Pass
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.75 49% −13.7% Pass
Over 3.5 3.50 3.40 23% −18.3% Pass
Under 1.5
book 3.50 · fair 3.40 · 31%
+8.3%
Watch
Under 2.5
book 1.91 · fair 1.80 · 56%
+7.7%
Top pick
BTTS No
book 2.10 · fair 2.00 · 51%
+6.5%
Watch
Under 0.5
book 10.00 · fair 9.00 · 10%
+4.0%
Watch
Double Chance 1X
book 1.42 · fair 1.36 · 72%
+2.3%
Watch
Under 3.5
book 1.30 · fair 1.29 · 77%
−0.4%
Pass
Over 0.5
book 1.06 · fair 1.05 · 90%
−5.0%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.33 · fair 1.30 · 69%
−8.2%
Pass
Draw
book 3.44 · fair 3.35 · 26%
−11.1%
Pass
Over 2.5
book 2.03 · fair 2.00 · 44%
−11.4%
Pass
Away Win
book 3.11 · fair 3.10 · 28%
−13.0%
Pass
Double Chance X2
book 1.61 · fair 1.61 · 54%
−13.4%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 1.75 · fair 1.75 · 49%
−13.7%
Pass
Over 3.5
book 3.50 · fair 3.40 · 23%
−18.3%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.16
Goals Scored
1.05
1.46
Goals Conceded
1.16
1.20
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
3.84
Shots on Target
4.73
4.92
Corners
5.70
48.19
Possession (%)
53.43
96.86
Efficiency index
80.51
74.82
Adjusted index
72.03
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
15
OFF · home
60
55
DEF · home
70
70
OFF · away
50
75
DEF · away
45
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

Alaves wins when scoring first
50%
Rayo Vallecano wins when scoring first
67%
Alaves BTTS rate · last 10
80%
Rayo Vallecano BTTS rate · last 10
40%
Alaves Over 2.5 · last 10
60%
Rayo Vallecano Over 2.5 · last 10
20%
Alaves comeback rate · last 10
100%
Rayo Vallecano comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Alaves · last 10 at home

0–15 23%
16–30 0%
31–45 15%
46–60 15%
61–75 31%
76–90 15%

Rayo Vallecano · last 10 away

0–15 14%
16–30 14%
31–45 29%
46–60 29%
61–75 14%
76–90 0%
Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.

Top scorers

Toni Martínez
ALA · Attacker
13 G · 0.44 g/90
L. Boyé
ALA · Attacker
11 G · 0.53 g/90
Jorge de Frutos
RAY · Attacker
10 G · 0.37 g/90

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
MA
@maksymovmp
ROI -5.1%
47 minutes from now
La Liga Sa 23 May · 19:00
Alaves Alaves
1 : 0 live '
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
Goals Over/Under First Half Over 1.5 @ 2.93
Stake 91 coins
Payout 267 pending
P/L +176 potential vs stake
Pending
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
ALA – RAY @ 1.91
+7.7%
Edge
Forecast →