Match Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano May 23, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.91 — +7.7% better than the market.

Alaves carry a slight edge at home with a compact defensive block that has limited Rayo Vallecano's attacking threat in recent encounters. Their recent form shows stronger momentum, and a modest home advantage suggests a controlled pace.

Alaves' defensive solidity contrasts with Rayo's less effective defense.
Home form favors Alaves' confidence and pressing intensity.
Historical results hint at a tight, low-scoring affair.

Expect a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances, favoring a match under 2.5 goals as both sides prioritize structure over risk.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.91 ✗ Lost

AI 56% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALA 4-4-2 · RAY 4-3-3

ALA · 4-4-2 4-3-3 · RAY

11 Martínez ⚽

Subs used · ALA

33'

Protesoni ↑ ·

Parada ↓

74'

Suarez ↑ ·

Ibanez ↓

84'

Diabate ↑ ·

Boye ↓

84'

Guevara ↑ ·

Guridi ↓

Subs used · RAY

38'

Camello ↑ ·

Martin ↓

46'

de Frutos ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

61'

Ciss ↑ ·

Mumin ↓

61'

Alemao ↑ ·

Valentin ↓

88'

Ratiu ↑ ·

Balliu ↓

📊 Statistics

ALA 1 – 2 RAY

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.73

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.39

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 1 – 2

T. Martinez

1–0

⚽

13'

C. Protesoni ↓ · V. Parada ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

33'

38'

⇄

S. Camello ↓ · C. Martin ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

J. de Frutos ↓ · A. Garcia ↑

Substitution 2

54'

▮

S. Camello

Yellow Card

61'

⇄

P. Ciss ↓ · A. Mumin ↑

Substitution 3

61'

⇄

Alemao ↓ · O. Valentin ↑

Substitution 4

64'

▮

P. Ciss

Yellow Card

A. Perez

Yellow Card

▮

69'

73'

⚽

S. Camello

Assist · P. Ciss · 1–1

D. Suarez ↓ · P. Ibanez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

A. Rebbach

Yellow Card

▮

79'

I. Diabate ↓ · L. Boye ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

A. Guevara ↓ · J. Guridi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

84'

N. Tenaglia

Yellow Card

▮

88'

⇄

A. Ratiu ↓ · I. Balliu ↑

Substitution 5

90'

⚽

R. Nteka

Assist · S. Camello · 1–2

90+4'

▮

Pacha

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano won 2–1 away at Alaves. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 15, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 10 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: T. Martinez (13'), S. Camello (73'), R. Nteka (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.61 units (Brier 0.220).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.50	2.30	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.91	1.80	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.10	2.00	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.03	2.00	44%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.61	1.61	54%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.75	1.75	49%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.80	1.69	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.20	2.25	28%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.42	1.36	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.50	3.40	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.11	3.10	28%	Cashed	+2.11	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	9.01	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.30	1.29	77%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	1.05	90%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	1.30	69%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Draw	3.44	3.34	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.50	3.40	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.61u	−15% ROI