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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Celta Vigo — Sevilla
Spain   /   La Liga
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
Home · last 5 L W W L D
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
0:0
Live · 45'
Sevilla
Sevilla
L W W W L Away · last 5
Estadio Abanca-Balaídos · Vigo Referee F. Maeso
Home Win · CEL
60%
Best 2.02
Draw
24%
Best 3.56
Away Win · SEV
16%
Best 4.18
Best bet
Home Win
@ 1.91
Fair odds
1.67
book 1.91 · +14.4% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
High
p 60% · EV +14.4%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Celta Vigo vs Sevilla Preview

Celta Vigo holds a clear quality edge and a notable home momentum, supported by a solid defensive setup that challenges Sevilla’s attack. Sevilla’s recent form shows resilience, but their defensive frailties may be exposed against Celta’s sharper offensive play. The match hints at a moderate tempo with a balanced goal environment, favoring a tight contest where Celta’s home advantage and pressing edge could be decisive.

  • Celta’s defensive compactness vs Sevilla’s attack
  • Home momentum and tactical discipline
  • Moderate pace suggesting controlled, strategic play

Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
Home Win 1.91 1.95 60% +14.4% Watch
Under 1.5 3.75 3.40 29% +9.5% Watch
Double Chance 1X 1.26 1.22 84% +5.9% Watch
Under 2.5 1.94 1.80 54% +4.9% Watch
Under 0.5 11.50 10.00 9% +3.9% Watch
BTTS No 1.95 1.93 52% +0.6% Watch
Under 3.5 1.33 1.31 75% −0.5% Pass
Over 0.5 1.05 1.05 91% −4.5% Pass
Draw 3.84 3.45 24% −7.2% Pass
Over 2.5 2.00 2.00 46% −8.1% Pass
Over 1.5 1.29 1.30 71% −8.7% Pass
BTTS Yes 1.83 1.83 48% −11.4% Pass
Over 3.5 3.40 3.40 25% −14.4% Pass
Double Chance X2 2.05 1.87 40% −17.8% Pass
Away Win 4.60 4.00 16% −26.7% Pass
Home Win
book 1.91 · fair 1.95 · 60%
+14.4%
Watch
Under 1.5
book 3.75 · fair 3.40 · 29%
+9.5%
Watch
Double Chance 1X
book 1.26 · fair 1.22 · 84%
+5.9%
Watch
Under 2.5
book 1.94 · fair 1.80 · 54%
+4.9%
Watch
Under 0.5
book 11.50 · fair 10.00 · 9%
+3.9%
Watch
BTTS No
book 1.95 · fair 1.93 · 52%
+0.6%
Watch
Under 3.5
book 1.33 · fair 1.31 · 75%
−0.5%
Pass
Over 0.5
book 1.05 · fair 1.05 · 91%
−4.5%
Pass
Draw
book 3.84 · fair 3.45 · 24%
−7.2%
Pass
Over 2.5
book 2.00 · fair 2.00 · 46%
−8.1%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.29 · fair 1.30 · 71%
−8.7%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 1.83 · fair 1.83 · 48%
−11.4%
Pass
Over 3.5
book 3.40 · fair 3.40 · 25%
−14.4%
Pass
Double Chance X2
book 2.05 · fair 1.87 · 40%
−17.8%
Pass
Away Win
book 4.60 · fair 4.00 · 16%
−26.7%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.41
Goals Scored
1.24
1.30
Goals Conceded
1.59
1.29
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
4.05
Shots on Target
3.65
3.78
Corners
4.84
50.32
Possession (%)
51.05
105.75
Efficiency index
115.94
89.06
Adjusted index
79.18
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
35
OFF · home
10
45
DEF · home
40
60
OFF · away
15
70
DEF · away
15
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
⚠️ Sharp move on Away Win · 4.46 ↓ 4.02 (-10%)
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

Celta Vigo wins when scoring first
50%
Sevilla wins when scoring first
67%
Celta Vigo BTTS rate · last 10
60%
Sevilla BTTS rate · last 10
50%
Celta Vigo Over 2.5 · last 10
70%
Sevilla Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
Celta Vigo comeback rate · last 10
33%
Sevilla comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Celta Vigo · last 10 at home

0–15 10%
16–30 19%
31–45 14%
46–60 29%
61–75 0%
76–90 29%

Sevilla · last 10 away

0–15 0%
16–30 0%
31–45 33%
46–60 0%
61–75 42%
76–90 25%
Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.

Top scorers

Borja Iglesias
CEL · Attacker
14 G · 0.69 g/90
Ferran Jutglà
CEL · Attacker
9 G · 0.51 g/90
A. Adams
SEV · Attacker
10 G · 0.44 g/90
C. Ejuke
SEV · Attacker
10 G · 0.46 g/90

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
MA
@maksymovmp
ROI -5.1%
47 minutes from now
La Liga Sa 23 May · 19:00
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo
0 : 0 live '
Sevilla Sevilla
Goals Over/Under First Half Over 1.5 @ 2.93
Stake 106 coins
Payout 311 pending
P/L +205 potential vs stake
Pending