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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Villarreal — Atletico Madrid
Spain   /   La Liga
Villarreal
Villarreal
Home · last 5 W W D L L
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 19:00
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
W W L W W Away · last 5
Estadio de la Ceramica · Villarreal
Home Win · VIL
47%
Best 2.53
Draw
24%
Best 3.90
Away Win · ATM
29%
Best 2.78
Best bet
Under 3.5
@ 1.73
Fair odds
1.65
book 1.73 · +4.9% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
Medium
p 61% · EV +4.9%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Villarreal hold a clear quality edge at home, supported by a solid recent run and a pressing advantage in attack versus Atletico's defense. Their home momentum and ability to control the game tempo suggest a compact block with effective set-piece threats. Atletico, despite recent wins, face challenges breaking down Villarreal's disciplined defense, hinting at a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances.

  • Home side's offensive edge against away defense
  • Villarreal's recent form and home confidence
  • Likely cautious pace with defensive solidity

Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
Under 1.5 6.00 5.50 18% +9.9% Watch
Double Chance 1X 1.53 1.44 71% +9.4% Watch
BTTS No 2.80 2.79 38% +5.4% Watch
Under 3.5 1.73 1.67 61% +4.9% Watch
Under 2.5 2.70 2.62 39% +4.8% Watch
Draw 4.00 3.72 24% −3.0% Pass
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 95% −3.1% Pass
Under 0.5 19.00 17.00 5% −4.1% Pass
Over 1.5 1.14 1.13 82% −6.9% Pass
Over 2.5 1.50 1.46 61% −8.2% Pass
Over 3.5 2.28 2.20 39% −10.3% Pass
BTTS Yes 1.41 1.40 62% −12.1% Pass
Double Chance X2 1.56 1.53 53% −17.7% Pass
Away Win 2.80 2.73 29% −20.1% Pass
Under 1.5
book 6.00 · fair 5.50 · 18%
+9.9%
Watch
Double Chance 1X
book 1.53 · fair 1.44 · 71%
+9.4%
Watch
BTTS No
book 2.80 · fair 2.79 · 38%
+5.4%
Watch
Under 3.5
book 1.73 · fair 1.67 · 61%
+4.9%
Watch
Under 2.5
book 2.70 · fair 2.62 · 39%
+4.8%
Watch
Draw
book 4.00 · fair 3.72 · 24%
−3.0%
Pass
Over 0.5
book 1.02 · fair 1.02 · 95%
−3.1%
Pass
Under 0.5
book 19.00 · fair 17.00 · 5%
−4.1%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.14 · fair 1.13 · 82%
−6.9%
Pass
Over 2.5
book 1.50 · fair 1.46 · 61%
−8.2%
Pass
Over 3.5
book 2.28 · fair 2.20 · 39%
−10.3%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 1.41 · fair 1.40 · 62%
−12.1%
Pass
Double Chance X2
book 1.56 · fair 1.53 · 53%
−17.7%
Pass
Away Win
book 2.80 · fair 2.73 · 29%
−20.1%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.81
Goals Scored
1.65
1.22
Goals Conceded
1.05
1.51
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
4.43
Shots on Target
5.14
4.16
Corners
6.41
44.49
Possession (%)
53.38
118.92
Efficiency index
105.40
114.94
Adjusted index
104.59
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
80
OFF · home
85
50
DEF · home
90
80
OFF · away
30
90
DEF · away
50
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

Villarreal wins when scoring first
50%
Atletico Madrid wins when scoring first
75%
Villarreal BTTS rate · last 10
80%
Atletico Madrid BTTS rate · last 10
60%
Villarreal Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
Villarreal comeback rate · last 10
0%
Atletico Madrid comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Villarreal · last 10 at home

0–15 18%
16–30 14%
31–45 27%
46–60 18%
61–75 14%
76–90 9%

Atletico Madrid · last 10 away

0–15 21%
16–30 0%
31–45 29%
46–60 7%
61–75 21%
76–90 21%
Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.

Top scorers

G. Mikautadze
VIL · Attacker
12 G · 0.53 g/90
Alberto Moleiro
VIL · Midfielder
10 G · 0.38 g/90
A. Sørloth
ATM · Forward
13 G · 0.60 g/90