Elche vs Atletico Madrid 3:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.57 — +11.4% better than the market.

Atletico Madrid enter this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting a stronger overall squad and offensive threat compared to Elche. Despite Atletico's recent struggles, Elche's home momentum and better recent form suggest a competitive encounter. The home side's compact defense will be tested by Atletico's sharper attack, but Elche's resilience and pressing could limit chances.

Atletico's superior quality and attacking potential
Elche's home form and defensive solidity
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline over open play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.57 ✗ Lost

AI 71% Implied 64% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ELC 3-5-2 · ATM 4-4-2

ELC · 3-5-2 4-4-2 · ATM

9 Silva ⚽

Subs used · ELC

60'

Chust ↑ ·

Sangare ↓

67'

Josan ↑ ·

Morente ↓

67'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Mir ↓

67'

Cepeda ↑ ·

Neto ↓

82'

Bigas ↑ ·

Petrot ↓

Subs used · ATM

46'

Molina ↑ ·

Le Normand ↓

46'

Pubill ↑ ·

Diaz ↓

62'

Simeone ↑ ·

Baena ↓

62'

Griezmann ↑ ·

Mendoza ↓

62'

Barrios ↑ ·

Vargas ↓

Statistics

ELC 3 – 2 ATM

72%

Possession (%)

28%

2.67

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.01

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

20 · 3 – 2

10'

⚽

N. Gonzalez

Assist · R. Mendoza · 0–1

D. Affengruber

Assist · Tete Morente · 1–1

⚽

18'

30'

▮

Thiago Almada

Red Card

Andre Silva (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

33'

34'

⚽

N. Gonzalez

Assist · R. Le Normand · 2–2

36'

▮

Clément Lenglet

Yellow Card

38'

▮

Julio Díaz

Yellow Card

Half-time · 2 – 2

46'

⇄

N. Molina ↓ · R. Le Normand ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

M. Pubill ↓ · J. Diaz ↑

Substitution 2

Buba Sangare

Yellow Card

▮

45+4'

Aleix Febas

Yellow Card

▮

45+4'

V. Chust ↓ · Buba Sangare ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

60'

62'

⇄

G. Simeone ↓ · A. Baena ↑

Substitution 3

62'

⇄

A. Griezmann ↓ · R. Mendoza ↑

Substitution 4

62'

⇄

P. Barrios ↓ · O. Vargas ↑

Substitution 5

Josan ↓ · Tete Morente ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

A. Rodriguez ↓ · R. Mir ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

67'

L. Cepeda ↓ · M. Neto ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

67'

Andre Silva

Assist · D. Affengruber · 3–2

⚽

75'

P. Bigas ↓ · L. Petrot ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Elche beat Atletico Madrid 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 72% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.67 to 1.01. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 6, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 13 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Gonzalez (10'), D. Affengruber (18'), Andre Silva (33'), N. Gonzalez (34'), Andre Silva (75'). Thiago Almada was sent off in the 30' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.41 units (Brier 0.243).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.62	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.31	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.40	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.72	—	53%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.92	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.75	—	31%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
Home Win	2.71	—	29%	Cashed	+1.71	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.02	—	29%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.57	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.53	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	56%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.57	—	53%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 0.5	16.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	93%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.88	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.21	—	76%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.41u	−14% ROI

Elche vs Atletico Madrid 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled