Match Oviedo vs Villarreal April 23, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.06 — +9.0% better than the market.

Villarreal arrive as clear favorites given their superior overall quality and offensive edge, despite Oviedo's decent home momentum. The visitors' stronger attack faces a home defense that has struggled, suggesting Villarreal can break through. Oviedo's recent form shows resilience, but the quality gap and Villarreal's pressing style likely tilt control away from the hosts.

Villarreal's attacking threat vs Oviedo's leaky defense
Home side's moderate form but limited firepower
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.06 ✗ Lost

AI 53% Implied 49% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

OVI 4-2-3-1 · VIL 4-4-2

OVI · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · VIL

9 Viñas

Subs used · OVI

71'

Ejaria ↑ ·

Sibo ↓

71'

Hassan ↑ ·

Fernandez ↓

72'

Cazorla ↑ ·

Reina ↓

90'

Alhassane ↑ ·

Lopez ↓

90+1'

Agudin ↑ ·

Chaira ↓

Subs used · VIL

46'

Mikautadze ↑ ·

Buchanan ↓

63'

Moleiro ↑ ·

Gonzalez ↓

63'

Perez ↑ ·

Oluwaseyi ↓

78'

Partey ↑ ·

Parejo ↓

78'

Freeman ↑ ·

Mourino ↓

📊 Statistics

OVI 1 – 1 VIL

58%

Possession (%)

42%

0.88

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 1

13'

⚽

N. Pepe (P)

Penalty · 0–1

Aaron Escandell

Yellow Card

▮

37'

Half-time · 0 – 1

46'

⇄

G. Mikautadze ↓ · T. Buchanan ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

A. Moleiro ↓ · A. Gonzalez ↑

Substitution 2

63'

⇄

A. Perez ↓ · T. Oluwaseyi ↑

Substitution 3

I. Chaira

1–1

⚽

69'

O. Ejaria ↓ · K. Sibo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

71'

H. Hassan ↓ · T. Fernandez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

S. Cazorla ↓ · A. Reina ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

78'

⇄

T. Partey ↓ · D. Parejo ↑

Substitution 4

78'

⇄

A. Freeman ↓ · S. Mourino ↑

Substitution 5

R. Alhassane ↓ · J. Lopez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90'

P. Agudin ↓ · I. Chaira ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

90+6'

▮

Alberto Moleiro

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Oviedo and Villarreal drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 7, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 0.

On the scoresheet: N. Pepe (13'), I. Chaira (69').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.98 units (Brier 0.165).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.14	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.06	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.93	—	56%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.01	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	47%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.80	—	45%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.79	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.65	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.30	—	81%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.50	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.35	—	76%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	91%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.32	—	70%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Draw	3.45	—	26%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.90	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.98u	−18% ROI