Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.88 — +6.9% better than the market.

Atletico Madrid enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a slightly better recent form, despite Sevilla's home advantage. The visitors' stronger offense faces a resilient Sevilla defense, suggesting a tactical battle where Atletico's pressing and counter-attack could be decisive. Sevilla's recent struggles at home hint at a tough night ahead, but their defensive solidity may keep the scoreline tight.

Atletico's offensive edge vs Sevilla's defense
Sevilla's home momentum under pressure
Moderate pace expected, leaning to a compact game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.88 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 53% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

SEV 5-4-1 · ATM 4-2-3-1

SEV · 5-4-1 4-2-3-1 · ATM

9 Adams ⚽

Subs used · SEV

70'

Sow ↑ ·

Bueno ↓

70'

Peque ↑ ·

Romero ↓

78'

Sanchez ↑ ·

Vargas ↓

90+4'

Suazo ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

90+4'

Mendy ↑ ·

Adams ↓

Subs used · ATM

71'

Lookman ↑ ·

Belaid ↓

71'

Morcillo ↑ ·

Mendoza ↓

86'

Monserrate ↑ ·

Diaz ↓

Statistics

SEV 2 – 1 ATM

32%

Possession (%)

68%

1.78

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.79

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

72%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 2 – 1

-5'

▮

Antoine Griezmann

Yellow Card

A. Adams (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

10'

35'

⚽

J. Bonar

Assist · J. Diaz · 1–1

Manu Bueno

Yellow Card

▮

36'

44'

▮

Julio Díaz

Yellow Card

N. Gudelj

Assist · R. Vargas · 2–1

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 1

Juanlu Sánchez

Yellow Card

▮

67'

D. Sow ↓ · M. Bueno ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

Peque ↓ · I. Romero ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

71'

⇄

A. Lookman ↓ · R. Belaid ↑

Substitution 1

71'

⇄

J. Morcillo ↓ · R. Mendoza ↑

Substitution 2

75'

▮

Alejandro Baena

Yellow Card

A. Sanchez ↓ · R. Vargas ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

86'

⇄

J. Monserrate ↓ · J. Diaz ↑

Substitution 3

Nemanja Gudelj

Yellow Card

▮

88'

G. Suazo ↓ · J. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+4'

B. Mendy ↓ · A. Adams ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+4'

90+5'

▮

Javi Morcillo

Yellow Card

Peque Fernández

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Sevilla beat Atletico Madrid 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.78 to 0.79. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Adams (10'), J. Bonar (35'), N. Gudelj (45').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.16 units (Brier 0.252).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.33	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.88	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.22	—	43%	Cashed	+1.22	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	48%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.68	—	49%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.52	—	20%	Cashed	+1.52	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.33	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.35	—	77%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Draw	3.20	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.58	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.34	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.39	—	69%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.00	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.68	—	20%	Cashed	+2.68	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.16u	−7% ROI

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled