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Home › Spain › La Liga › Barcelona — Espanyol

Barcelona vs Espanyol 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Barcelona
Barcelona
Home · last 5 W W L W L
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 16:30
4:1
Full-time
Espanyol
Espanyol
L L W W D Away · last 5
Spotify Camp Nou · Barcelona Referee Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.70 ✓
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 56% · book 1.79 ✓
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 44% · book 2.18 ✗
Total goals
5
4 · 1
xG (open play)
2.81 – 1.17
Δ +1.64
Possession
77% – 23%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 7.50 — +11.4% better than the market.

Barcelona enters this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a near-perfect recent form and a significant quality edge over Espanyol. Their potent attack faces a defense that has struggled lately, suggesting a high chance of goals. The home side's pressing and compact block should dominate, while Espanyol's lackluster away form and defensive vulnerabilities hint at a tough outing.

  • Barcelona's attacking superiority against Espanyol's leaky defense
  • Home advantage at Camp Nou amplifies Barcelona's control
  • Espanyol's recent draws and losses show limited offensive threat

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Draw
Draw @ 7.50 ✗ Lost
AI 15% Implied 13% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BAR 4-2-3-1 · ESP 4-4-1-1
BAR · 4-2-3-1 4-4-1-1 · ESP 13 García 4 Araújo 5 Cubarsí 18 Martín 3 Balde 24 García 8 Pedri 10 Yamal ⚽ 16 López 6 Gavi 7 Torres ⚽ 13 Dmitrović 23 Hilali 5 Calero 6 Cabrera 22 Romero 16 Ngonge 4 González 10 Lozano ⚽ 24 Dolan 8 Expósito 19 García
Subs used · BAR
46' Casado ↑ · Martin ↓
64' Cancelo ↑ · Balde ↓
64' Rashford ↑ · Gavi ↓
74' Olmo ↑ · Torres ↓
84' de Jong ↑ · Fermín ↓
Subs used · ESP
46' Fernandez Jaen ↑ · Dolan ↓
64' Sanchez ↑ · Ngonge ↓
71' Milla ↑ · Garcia ↓
71' Terrats ↑ · Exposito ↓
80' Pickel ↑ · Lozano ↓

Statistics

BAR 4 – 1 ESP
77%
Possession (%)
23%
2.81
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.17
20
Total Shots
10
10
Shots on Target
2
6
Shots off Target
5
16
Shots Inside Box
10
7
Corner Kicks
5
4
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
18
92%
Pass Accuracy (%)
74%
3
Yellow Cards
6
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

24 · 4 – 1
F. Torres
Assist · Lamine Yamal · 1–0
⚽
9'
F. Torres
Assist · Lamine Yamal · 2–0
⚽
25'
Pablo Gavi
Yellow Card
▮
32'
32'
▮
Omar El Hilali
Yellow Card
34'
▮
Edu Expósito
Yellow Card
45'
▮
Cyril Ngonge
Yellow Card
Half-time · 2 – 0
M. Casado ↓ · G. Martin ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
R. Fernandez Jaen ↓ · T. Dolan ↑
Substitution 1
Eric García
Yellow Card
▮
45+3'
Marc Casadó
Yellow Card
▮
49'
56'
⚽
P. Lozano
2–1
58'
▮
Pol Lozano
Yellow Card
J. Cancelo ↓ · A. Balde ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
64'
M. Rashford ↓ · Gavi ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
64'
64'
⇄
R. Sanchez ↓ · C. Ngonge ↑
Substitution 2
71'
⇄
P. Milla ↓ · K. Garcia ↑
Substitution 3
71'
⇄
R. Terrats ↓ · Exposito ↑
Substitution 4
D. Olmo ↓ · F. Torres ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
80'
⇄
C. Pickel ↓ · P. Lozano ↑
Substitution 5
83'
▮
Fernando Calero
Yellow Card
F. de Jong ↓ · Fermín ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Lamine Yamal
3–1
⚽
87'
M. Rashford
Assist · F. de Jong · 4–1
⚽
89'
90+2'
▮
Urko González
Yellow Card
Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Barcelona beat Espanyol 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 77% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.81 to 1.17. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 10, 10 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Torres (9'), F. Torres (25'), P. Lozano (56'), Lamine Yamal (87'), M. Rashford (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.71 units (Brier 0.061).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.70 — 60% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Over 3.5 1.79 — 56% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
Under 3.5 2.18 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.31 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 7.50 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.07 — 94% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Home Win 1.27 — 79% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.06 — 79% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 — 97% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.09 — 90% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.29 — 75% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Under 2.5 3.75 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 4.30 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 8.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 29.00 — 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 12.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.10 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −6.71u −39% ROI
Value pick of the night · Draw
BAR – ESP @ 7.50
+11.4%
Edge
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