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Home › Spain › La Liga › Celta Vigo — Alaves

Celta Vigo vs Alaves 3:4: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
Home · last 5 W W L D W
Kick-off
Sun 22 Mar · 15:15
3:4
Full-time
Alaves
Alaves
L D W W L Away · last 5
Referee Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 58% · book 2.00 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.81 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.68 ✗
Total goals
7
3 · 4
xG (open play)
1.82 – 1.73
Δ +0.09
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.23 — +3.9% better than the market.

Celta Vigo enters this La Liga clash with a clear quality edge and home momentum, showing signs of resilience in recent matches. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Alaves' struggles to find consistency on the road, suggesting a tactical advantage for the hosts. Expect a controlled tempo with Celta leveraging set-piece threats and a compact block to limit Alaves' attacking chances.

  • Home side's stronger form and quality gap
  • Defensive discipline vs away's offensive challenges
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 1.23 ✗ Lost
AI 84% Implied 81% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CEL 3-4-3 · ALA 4-4-2
CEL · 3-4-3 4-4-2 · ALA 13 Radu 32 Rodríguez 4 Aidoo 24 Domínguez 39 El-Abdellaoui 22 Sotelo 3 Mingueza 14 Núñez 9 Jutglà ⚽ 7 Iglesias 23 Álvarez ⚽ 1 Sivera 17 Otto 14 Tenaglia 5 Pacheco 24 Parada
7 Pérez
19 Ibáñez 8 Blanco 10 Aleñá 11 Martínez ⚽ 15 Boyé
Subs used · CEL
54' Carreira ↑ · Nunez ↓
54' Lopez ↑ · Mingueza ↓
69' Rueda ↑ · Iglesias ↓
69' Duran ↑ · El Abdellaoui ↓
82' Aspas ↑ · Aidoo ↓
Subs used · ALA
46' Suarez ↑ · Alena ↓
46' Diabate ↑ · Boye ↓
46' Guridi ↑ · Ibanez ↓
46' Rebbach ↑ · Pacheco ↓
90+4' Koski ↑ · Martinez ↓

Statistics

CEL 3 – 4 ALA
56%
Possession (%)
44%
1.82
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.73
12
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Target
6
3
Shots off Target
7
9
Shots Inside Box
10
4
Corner Kicks
1
0
Offsides
2
13
Fouls
16
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

21 · 3 – 4
F. Jutgla
Assist · J. Rodriguez · 1–0
⚽
19'
22'
▮
Jon Pacheco
Yellow Card
H. Alvarez
Assist · F. Jutgla · 2–0
⚽
27'
F. Jutgla
Assist · H. Sotelo · 3–0
⚽
37'
45'
⚽
T. Martinez
Assist · A. Perez · 3–1
Half-time · 3 – 1
46'
⇄
D. Suarez ↓ · C. Alena ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
I. Diabate ↓ · L. Boye ↑
Substitution 2
46'
⇄
J. Guridi ↓ · P. Ibanez ↑
Substitution 3
46'
⇄
A. Rebbach ↓ · J. Pacheco ↑
Substitution 4
Javi Rodríguez
Yellow Card
▮
45+3'
50'
⚽
A. Perez
Assist · T. Martinez · 3–2
S. Carreira ↓ · A. Nunez ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
54'
F. Lopez ↓ · O. Mingueza ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
54'
Fer López
Yellow Card
▮
65'
J. Rueda ↓ · B. Iglesias ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
69'
P. Duran ↓ · J. El Abdellaoui ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
69'
74'
⚽
T. Martinez
Assist · A. Rebbach · 3–3
78'
⚽
A. Rebbach
Assist · V. Parada · 3–4
I. Aspas ↓ · J. Aidoo ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
82'
90+4'
▮
Denis Suárez
Yellow Card
90+4'
⇄
V. Koski ↓ · T. Martinez ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 3 – 4

Match recap

Alaves won 4–3 away at Celta Vigo. At half-time it was 3–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.73 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Jutgla (19'), H. Alvarez (27'), F. Jutgla (37'), T. Martinez (45'), A. Perez (50'), T. Martinez (74'), A. Rebbach (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +4.49 units (Brier 0.355).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.00 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.81 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.68 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.38 — 41% Cashed +1.38 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.10 — 45% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.92 — 42% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.23 — 84% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.00 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.45 — 67% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.24 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.10 — 89% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.50 — 21% Cashed +3.50 Cashed
Draw 3.40 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.38 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.75 — 16% Cashed +3.75 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.29 — 16% Cashed +2.29 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +4.49u +26% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
CEL – ALA @ 1.23
+3.9%
Edge
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